U.S. Inflation Rises 0.4% in October, Dollar Climbs to 158.66 Yen
Key Facts
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in October 2026, after increasing 0.6% in September, exceeding the Reuters poll forecast of 0.3%. After the data were released, the dollar rose 0.47% to 158.66 yen, according to a Reuters report published on Nov. 10. The dollar index also rose 0.51% to 102.20 points, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note climbed 19.07 basis points to 4.738%. These moves reflect markets’ response to the inflation data and what they may mean for the path of U.S. interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the overall index rose month over month after September’s increase, while the core index showed the monthly pace of gains continued.
The consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, the same rate recorded in September and August. The continued monthly increase at this pace indicates that underlying pressures did not ease in the latest reading, despite a slowdown in the overall index compared with September’s increase. The shelter index rose 0.3% in October, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the overall index. The food index rose 0.5% and the energy index increased 0.7% during the month. The unadjusted index level for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was 337.511 in October, based on 1982–84=100. These figures show the components of the monthly increase, without providing a year-over-year comparison for October.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he still supports a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the December meeting if developments unfold as he expects. He added that a much higher inflation reading could call for a stronger move, indicating that his decision will remain tied to incoming data. In its market report, Reuters said traders priced in an 89% probability of a December rate hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The report linked the rise in the two-year yield to rate expectations, as that yield typically moves in line with expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on Dec. 8 and 9. That puts upcoming inflation data among the information markets will watch ahead of the meeting.
In a separate speech, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said two more rate increases would be appropriate before pausing to assess developments. This reflects her view of the appropriate path for monetary policy and is not a decision by the committee. Her remarks come as the October reading, which exceeded the Reuters poll forecast, bolstered bets on a December rate hike. September data had shown the overall index rising 3.7% over the 12 months and increasing 0.6% during the month before seasonal adjustment. For October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an annual change because it could not collect October 2025 data during the funding lapse. The bureau said that missing data prevented it from publishing 12-month changes for October 2026.
Upcoming indicators on the U.S. calendar include initial jobless claims, which were scheduled for release on Nov. 12 for the week ended Nov. 7. The forecast was 195,000 claims, compared with a previous reading of 189,000. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was also scheduled to speak in a moderated conversation on the same day. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the November consumer price index report for release on Dec. 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. This comes ahead of the committee meeting scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9, on which Waller has stated his position. The next data and remarks will provide additional context for markets’ assessment of the rate path.