Hormuz Strait Transits Fall 65% From Pre-Conflict Levels as Traffic Continues
Key Facts
Transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by about 65% from pre-conflict levels, while the passage remains open to ships, according to the latest weekly report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), as reported by Gulf News on November 10. The report recorded 170 outbound transits and 155 inbound transits. The figures put shipping traffic well below normal levels, but do not indicate that it has stopped. Gulf News said traffic "remains well below normal, but has not stopped." The decline comes as the safety of passage remains a concern, following reports of ships being struck while transiting the area.
The description of a northern route does not apply to all vessels; Gulf News reported that most ships whose identification systems were transmitting signals used the Iranian route north of the strait. This limitation means that identification-system data describe ships visible through their signals and do not establish the route taken by every transiting vessel. In a separate measure, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said monitoring showed daily counts ranging from single digits to the low tens. This daily picture differs in scope from UKMTO's weekly tally, which reported transit counts during the reporting period without specifying its dates precisely. Comparisons between these figures therefore remain tied to differences in the period and monitoring method to which the sources attributed each tally.
In another measure, US maritime coordination data recorded about 30 US-assisted transits per day between November 5 and 7. UKMTO said, however, that it could not independently verify all movements reported by the United States. The caveat reflects the limits of comparing transit traffic shown in US coordination data with the independent monitoring cited by JMIC. The US figures cover a specified three-day period, while UKMTO's figure relates to a weekly report whose dates the source did not specify. The description of the transits as US-assisted applies to those recorded movements and does not necessarily describe all shipping traffic.
The shipping figures came amid a recent security incident in the strait. UKMTO said it received a delayed report on November 8 that a tanker had been struck by an unidentified projectile while exiting the strait. The organization said all crew members were safe and accounted for, and no environmental impact had been reported at the time of the notice. More broadly, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) counted 131 confirmed maritime incidents in the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz, through November 9, with 25 seafarer deaths recorded. The tally shows that shipping risks extend beyond the latest tanker incident, without on its own identifying the cause of the decline in transit numbers.
The IMO reported that the vessel HUDA was damaged on November 7, 17 nautical miles off the coast of Oman, with no pollution recorded. In a statement issued on August 28, the organization said it had verified at least 70 attacks on international shipping by that date, with 19 seafarers killed. The Associated Press, citing Lloyd’s List, recorded 28 attacks on ships during October, the highest number since the war began, according to the agency. The Associated Press also said oil tankers continued to move oil through the strait under US military protection, and active Gulf operators showed no major signs of withdrawal despite October's attacks. Gulf News dates the start of the war to February 28, when US and Israeli strikes began.
IMO arrangements indicate that the maritime evacuation plan from the Gulf is currently suspended, and ships are to remain in place and await instructions, given the risk of mines and deteriorating navigation conditions. The organization said ships contacted by UKMTO or the MICA center can choose the northern route through Iranian waters or the southern route through Omani waters, after assessing risks and coordinating with the relevant coastal state. In July, the IMO Council affirmed that the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation must not be threatened, obstructed or suspended. Politically, Gulf News said Qatari mediation and Iran's response were developments to watch. It quoted US President Donald Trump as saying military action against Iran "doesn't seem very necessary," adding that the United States was "ready and eager to act for any reason."