EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•10 November 2026•
3 min read

October Forecast Put Hormuz Gas Transit Recovery at 25% of Pre-War Levels

Key Facts

1An S&P Global analyst estimated on October 2 that October transit could reach 25% of pre-war levels if the acceleration in the second half of September continued.
2Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of global LNG supplies; flows through it were later disrupted.
3Loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by more than 60 billion cubic meters year on year between March and October, while global production declined by about 20 billion cubic meters, or 6%.
4The average Asian spot LNG price was $21.5 per million British thermal units between March and October, up nearly 80% year on year.

On October 2, an S&P Global analyst said continued acceleration in LNG tanker transits in the second half of September could lift October transit to 25% of pre-war levels. The analyst tied the estimate to that improvement continuing through the month, saying: "If this trend continues through October, transit for the full month could recover to 25% of pre-war levels." The estimate places the shipping trajectory in the context of a gradual recovery in flows disrupted by the war. Before the war, the strait carried about 20% of global LNG supplies, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency says flows through it were disrupted after the war broke out in late February 2026.

The disruption to Qatari supplies began after attacks on the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities. QatarEnergy announced on March 2 that it was halting LNG production and related products, according to a statement cited by S&P Global Energy. The disruption to flows through the strait reduced LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE by more than 60 billion cubic meters year on year between March and October, according to the International Energy Agency. Over the same period, global LNG production fell by about 20 billion cubic meters, or 6%, year on year. These figures show how the shipping disruption extended to global supplies during the period.

Ship transits through Hormuz remained sharply below pre-war levels; S&P Global said transit traffic had fallen by more than 80% since the war broke out on February 28, according to its August 28 report. In normal times, the strait handled about 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows, the report said. The importance of the Hormuz route for gas reflects the concentration of shipping destinations in Asia, which received about 90% of LNG volumes transiting the strait in 2025. Slightly more than 10% went to Europe, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency also said Qatar and the UAE have no alternative routes to export LNG to global markets outside their liquefaction facilities.

Supply disruptions were reflected in gas prices in major markets between March and October. The average spot LNG price in Asia was $21.5 per million British thermal units, up nearly 80% year on year, according to the International Energy Agency. In Europe, spot TTF prices rose nearly 70% to an average of about $20 per million British thermal units. The agency links the backdrop to these moves to the decline in supplies over the same period, while the price comparison provides a measure of their effect on the Asian and European markets. The analyst's October 2 estimate did not include a price forecast.

The International Energy Agency's third-quarter forecast assumed the strait would fully reopen during the third quarter of 2026, and that undamaged facilities would resume operations by early in the fourth quarter. The forecast also assumed a gradual increase in LNG deliveries from Qatar and the UAE between July and October. The agency presented these dates as assumptions underpinning its forecast, not as confirmation that operations had been fully restored. S&P Global's October 2 estimate, meanwhile, linked the potential level of October transit to continued acceleration in traffic in the second half of September. The return of supplies remains tied to the course of the strait's reopening and the resumption of operations at facilities under those assumptions.