35% Electricity Target Comes into Focus at COP31 as Hormuz Disruptions Lift Energy Costs
Key Facts
The Associated Press reported that Turkey is pushing at COP31 to raise electricity’s share of global energy consumption—preferably from renewable sources—to 35% by 2035, from 23% currently, according to its report published on November 10. The effort comes as the war in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, lifting global prices for gasoline, oil and products made from them, including fertilizers and pesticides. The agency did not specify the size of the increase, so no precise figure is available to measure its price impact. It said supply disruptions had prompted governments to rethink energy policies and increased investment in renewable sources such as wind and solar power. That puts supply security and fuel costs at the center of the summit’s climate debate, alongside the goal of increasing reliance on electricity.
The target is measured as electricity’s share of total global energy consumption, not as a share of electricity generation or access to electricity among the population. Sources describe it as a Turkish target or effort, and there is no evidence that it is a binding agreement. Australia, Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria and Vanuatu also endorsed a rooftop solar declaration at the summit, joined by lawmakers from other countries and Indonesia’s state-owned electricity company. The declaration is voluntary and non-binding, leaving its implementation dependent on subsequent national measures and policies. The initiative shows a practical aspect of efforts to expand solar power, while turning pledges into action remains the responsibility of governments and participating entities.
By contrast, Michelle Manook of FutureCoal warned that ambitious renewable targets could undermine energy security, reliability and affordability if grid capacity and storage challenges are not addressed and the role of coal is not resolved. Her comments underscore that expanding renewable generation requires infrastructure capable of transmitting and storing electricity and balancing supply, not simply adding new sources. A United Nations document says grids should expand in parallel with the decarbonization of electricity systems. The document also links a successful transition to investment in renewable generation, grids, storage, demand flexibility and digital infrastructure. The call to raise electricity’s share thus intersects with a broader debate over the cost of system reliability and its ability to accommodate variable sources.
The effects of the conflict are also showing up in energy import bills. According to a page by the United Nations climate agency, the Middle East conflict added 35 billion euros to the European Union’s oil and gas import bill through May 2026. The page estimated that the increase in the oil and gas import bill for ASEAN countries was about 3.36 billion dollars a month. These figures place supply costs among the factors driving interest in expanding domestic energy sources, though they do not by themselves measure the impact of the strait’s closure or break down each factor’s contribution to the increase. Separately, the Global Carbon Project estimated that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels reached 42.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4% from 2025. Scientists said the decline was linked mainly to oil shocks caused by the war in Iran, rather than sustained climate progress.
In a breakdown of 2026 emissions estimates, oil emissions fell about 2% and natural gas emissions 0.3%, while coal emissions rose 0.6%. Co-author Glen Peters said the decline was linked to energy shocks caused by the war and events in the Strait of Hormuz, warning against treating it as a sustainable climate gain. The differing figures across fuel types show that a supply shock does not mean a uniform shift away from fossil fuels. At the summit’s opening, Turkish Environment Minister Murad Kurum said the world would likely exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold compared with pre-industrial levels, and pledged that Turkey would not lower its climate ambition. COP31 President Murad Kurum said the summit should focus on turning previous climate commitments into action rather than setting new targets.
COP31 runs in Antalya from November 9 to 20, 2026, hosted by Turkey with Australia co-chairing the negotiations. The program includes the Antalya Leaders’ Summit on November 11 and 12, while a high-level dialogue on the clean energy and electricity transition will be held on November 11 from 15:00 to 16:30 local time. The Global Climate Action Agenda lists an event on accelerating action on grids and electricity on the same day from 09:00 to 10:00. Another session on November 12, from 12:00 to 13:30, will address implementation of the Paris Agreement and access to finance. These meetings give the electricity target and the debate on grids and financing a direct place on the summit agenda in the coming days.