Waller to speak in London after US adds 165,000 jobs in October
Key Facts
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at the Bank of England and Its Watchers conference in London on November 10, after a U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October. The Fed listed the speech for 4:00 a.m. Eastern time under the title “Economic Outlook.” The increase exceeded the average monthly gain of 48,000 over the previous 12 months and topped economists’ forecast of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell in October from 4.2% in September, according to Reuters. The jobs report puts the labor market at the center of the monetary-policy debate, while Waller’s speech is significant because of its timing after the data release. The Federal Reserve’s calendar confirms the speech’s date, location and title.
The largest sectoral increase cited was in professional and business services, which added 70,000 jobs in October. Health care added 42,000, while transportation and warehousing employment rose by 25,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figures show gains across the three sectors, led by professional and business services. Alongside the job counts, average hourly earnings for employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $38.00. On an annual basis, average earnings increased 3.1% in the 12 months ended in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said average hourly earnings rose over that period, while the monthly reading shows the size of the increase and the October level.
The bureau’s revisions to figures for the previous two months added to the total employment gains recorded recently. The estimated August job gain was raised by 53,000 to 186,000, while the September estimate was increased by 31,000 to 60,000. As a result, the August and September tally was 84,000 jobs higher than previously estimated. The revisions mean the figures now show stronger hiring in those months than the initial estimates indicated. October recorded an increase of 165,000 jobs, exceeding the average for the previous 12 months and the forecasts cited by economists. The figures come amid a labor market in which layoffs remained historically low and a recent rise in job openings increased the likelihood of tighter conditions, Reuters said.
Economists estimated that the economy needs to add at least 40,000 jobs a month to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. That estimate compares with a breakeven rate of about 150,000 jobs a month in 2024, according to Reuters. The agency reported that labor-market resilience gave the Federal Reserve more room to focus on inflation linked to the conflict in the Middle East. In the background, gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, according to the same report. These factors place the jobs reading in a broader economic picture encompassing the labor market, economic activity and inflation. The Fed’s calendar listed only the title, time and location of Waller’s speech, without specifying its contents.
The jobs report affected currency and bond markets on November 6, with the dollar index rising 0.7% to 102.22. The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 6 basis points to 4.52%, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. Market bets on a rate increase in December also rose to 78% after the data, from 70% earlier. These figures describe market moves recorded that day and include the currency, yield and traders’ estimates for the December meeting. The next jobs data, for November, are due on December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The Federal Reserve meets on December 8 and 9, while the October consumer price report, scheduled for the Tuesday after the jobs report, could provide further indications of the monetary-policy path in early 2027, Reuters said.