China’s Trade Surplus Narrows to $105.3 Billion in October as Imports Accelerate
Key Facts
Chinese customs data on November 10 showed the trade surplus narrowing to $105.3 billion in October from $133.5 billion in September, as imports accelerated faster than exports. Exports rose 35.2% year on year, while imports jumped 41.6%, according to the Associated Press. The average forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters pointed to a surplus of $125.8 billion, export growth of 33.5% and import growth of 32%. The actual surplus came in below the average forecast, while growth in both trade flows exceeded the estimates in the poll. The wider rise in imports relative to exports puts the narrowing surplus at the center of this month’s trade data.
Import growth accelerated to 41.6% in October from 31% in September, exceeding the Reuters average forecast of 32%. By contrast, export growth slowed to 35.2% from 36.3% in September, but remained above the forecast of 33.5%. The comparison means imports recorded faster year-on-year growth, while export growth remained strong despite easing from the previous month. The Associated Press said the surplus narrowed “as imports accelerated.” The figures highlight the differing monthly movements on the two sides of trade, with import growth picking up as export growth eased.
In the first ten months of the year, China recorded a cumulative trade surplus of $1.04 trillion, according to the Associated Press. The agency placed this trajectory in the context of China’s record $1.2 trillion surplus in 2025, saying the country was on track to surpass it. This comes as official data for the first nine months showed exports rising 16.4% to 23.2 trillion yuan and imports increasing 22.3% to 16.74 trillion yuan. Total goods trade rose 18.8% year on year to 39.94 trillion yuan over the period. These figures show that trade growth remained broad in the first nine months, with imports also rising faster than exports.
In details of the trade mix, the value of trade in industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan in the first nine months, up 58.9% year on year, according to data cited by China’s State Council from the General Administration of Customs. The Associated Press said high-tech goods, including semiconductors and automobiles, supported Chinese export growth during the year. Growth in industrial and electronics categories points to the role of these goods in expanding foreign trade, while the agency said Chinese companies shipped more goods overseas in search of buyers amid weak domestic demand. It added that the property sector’s yearslong decline was weighing on demand within China. Export growth therefore coincided with domestic-demand challenges, as imports posted faster growth in October.
Trade relations with the United States put the data in a broader context: the Associated Press said trade was likely to be among the leading issues at planned meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Shenzhen in November. The trade calm between the two countries was also extended by two more months, through January, offering some relief to Chinese exporters, though how long it will last remains uncertain, according to the agency. Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said, “Chinese exports will remain strong for the rest of this year, led by electronics and automobiles.” The forecast ties continued export strength to electronics and automobiles, sectors the Associated Press said had supported exports during the year. The upcoming meetings and extension of the trade truce remain developments to watch for the trajectory of Chinese trade.