USD/CAD Rises to 1.4120 as Oil Falls to Lowest Level Since August
Key Facts
The U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar to around 1.4120 during Asian hours on Tuesday, November 10, after slight losses in the previous session, according to an FXStreet report. The pair’s rise means the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Canadian currency during that period; it does not mean the Canadian dollar reached 1.4120. The move coincided with crude oil prices falling to their lowest levels since August, according to the same report. FXStreet linked the decline in oil to optimism about diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East. For the foreign exchange market, the drop put the Canadian currency in the context of a session marked by pressure on energy prices, while the pair remained near the highs recorded the previous day.
FXStreet quoted U.S. President Donald Trump as saying that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary, while stressing that the United States remained ready. Trump said the United States would remain "at full readiness." The remarks kept de-escalation and negotiations among the factors relevant to oil prices, without resolving the outcome of diplomatic efforts or the course of the conflict. Qatar’s prime minister was scheduled to meet Trump on Monday, November 9, to discuss efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran, according to Axios. The report said mediators had also discussed a draft two-step proposal, as political developments remained relevant to energy and currency moves.
Oil markets recorded a sharp decline in the previous session, with Brent crude falling 5.8% to $92.57 a barrel on Monday, November 9, according to the Associated Press. The agency added that the price had exceeded $112 a barrel at the start of the month before retreating amid uncertainty related to the war with Iran. In Monday trading, U.S. oil futures were down 3.5% at $87.64 a barrel, according to a Reuters report. These moves provide recent context for the pair’s rise in Asia, but relate to Monday’s session and are not confirmed oil prices for Tuesday’s session. In the currency market on Monday, the Canadian dollar was little changed at around 1.4135 against the U.S. dollar, near the 18-day low of 1.4137 recorded on Friday, November 6, according to Reuters.
In currency markets, a Reuters report said the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc were the only G10 currencies that did not gain against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as risk appetite improved. Canadian data also showed employment fell for a third consecutive month in October, while the unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 6.7%, according to the report. These domestic indicators coincided with falling oil prices on the same day, while movements in the U.S. dollar provided another factor in comparing the Canadian currency’s performance with its peers. Investors saw a roughly 40% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike in December, according to Reuters. That percentage remains a market estimate reported on Monday, not a decision by the central bank.
Attention is now turning to U.S. inflation data. An FXStreet report forecast headline inflation rising to 3.9% year over year from 3.7% in October, and core inflation climbing to 2.8% from 2.6%. The report also said CME FedWatch showed an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its December meeting, compared with 76% a day earlier. In Canada, the Bank of Canada scheduled the release of its summary of deliberations on the October 28 rate decision for Tuesday, November 10, at 13:30 Eastern time. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report is due on Thursday, November 12, at 12:00 and 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, following the federal government shutdown on Wednesday. OPEC said the seven countries participating in the virtual OPEC+ meeting on November 1 decided to keep the required production level for December at the September 2026 level, and that the next meeting would be held on November 29.