Brent Falls 5.85% to $92.57 as Trump Delays New Strikes on Iran
Key Facts
Brent crude settled at $92.57 a barrel on November 9, down 5.85%, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would delay launching new military strikes on Iran for now. The decline came as fears of an escalation that could disrupt oil supplies receded, though shipping risks in the region remained. Trump said he intended to hold off on new strikes after appeals from countries in the region, including Qatar, Reuters reported. The Associated Press reported that prices also fell after he said a resumption of strikes was “extremely unlikely” if the United States made progress in negotiations. The market thus tied price movements to signs of de-escalation, while military and diplomatic developments continued to shape supply expectations.
Trump’s message did not signal a retreat from maritime pressure on Iran: he said he would continue the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for now. U.S. forces would maintain the blockade to stop Iranian oil from flowing into the global market, the Associated Press reported. The continuation of the measure means that talk of delaying strikes does not amount to an automatic return of supplies or an easing of all risks tied to the waterway. Tanker traffic and energy infrastructure also remain among the concerns monitored by oil markets. The impact of de-escalatory comments on prices therefore coincided with a policy that continues to pressure Iran’s exports.
The decline extended to U.S. crude, with West Texas Intermediate futures settling down 4.38% at $86.85 a barrel on November 9. In U.S. stock markets, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, and stocks received support from Brent’s 5.8% drop to $92.57, the Associated Press said. The move in oil followed a sharp week: Brent fell 16% in the week ended November 6, its biggest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters. Crude had hit its lowest level since August 31 during the previous session, according to a Reuters report published on November 10. These moves show the scale of the decline preceding Monday’s session, without eliminating prices’ sensitivity to any change in the course of the conflict or supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz remains significant because of its role in oil trade and the risks to shipping there. Oil flows through the strait rose to 10.9 million barrels a day in September, an increase of 3.7 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency’s October report. But it warned that escalating attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could disrupt further gains in flows. In this context, statements about delaying strikes alone are not enough to confirm stable oil movements through the region. Tanker and facility safety remain part of the market’s calculations alongside the course of negotiations and the naval blockade.
Against the backdrop of market balance, OPEC production rose in October, led by increases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, despite continued export restrictions, according to a Reuters survey. On prices, the report said Brent was down about 22% from its six-month high of $118 a barrel, reached on October 30. This backdrop reflects the combined effect of supply movements and a decline in the risk premium in pulling crude away from its recent peak. But continued export restrictions and shipping risks mean any improvement in flows remains contingent on developments in the region. The decline alone did not provide evidence that supplies had returned to a normal course.
In early trading on Tuesday, November 10, Brent extended its decline, falling 0.75% to $91.88 a barrel by 0246 GMT, according to Reuters. An analyst at KCM Trade said the market “continues to prioritize Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Iran since the midterm elections.” By contrast, an analyst at Eurasia Group said prices were unlikely to fall below $90 a barrel without more sustained indications of de-escalation and a U.S.-Iran deal, with shipping risks still in place. These assessments put the course of negotiations and the durability of de-escalation at the center of market attention after the session’s decline. The naval blockade and risks to tanker traffic remained factors in the picture even as strikes were delayed.