ASX 200 Jumps 0.8% as Oil Falls and Hopes Grow for Iran War De-escalation

Key Facts

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 70.20 points, or 0.8%, to 9099.90 in early trading on November 10, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation said the index opened up 0.7%, or 63.4 points, at 9093. The gains followed a 1.1% rise in Australian index futures before the open, at a premium of 100.3 points to the index's previous close. Sentiment improved as oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks about the war with Iran. The index closed 0.1% higher on Monday, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Trump told reporters on November 9 that he believed the war in Iran was "essentially over militarily," adding that U.S. forces would remain ready to act if circumstances changed. He also spoke of "positive momentum" and a "good chance" of ending the war, but did not formally declare it over. The remarks helped ease fears of an escalation that could disrupt energy supplies, while the possibility of U.S. action remained. Reuters quoted analysts as saying hopes for peace encouraged oil sellers even as the fighting continued. Reports of attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz also remained part of market calculations.

January Brent crude futures settled on November 9 down $5.75, or 5.85%, at $92.57 a barrel, according to Reuters. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $3.98, or 4.38%, to $86.85. The Associated Press estimated Brent's decline at about 5.8% to $92.57, after it had been above $112 at the start of the month. In Asian trading on the morning of November 10, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported Brent was down 6.7% at $91.65 a barrel at about 7:15 a.m. Australian Eastern Time. Brent had lost 16% in the previous week, its biggest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters.

Optimism also spread to U.S. stocks in the November 9 session, with the Dow Jones rising 1104 points, or 2.2%, the Nasdaq gaining 2.7% and the S&P 500 adding 2.3%, according to the Associated Press. But chip stocks moved in different directions: Nvidia fell 4.3%, while AMD rose 13.3%. The agency said Nvidia was investigating a matter involving its chief executive, Jensen Huang, after reports of a suspected Chinese intelligence operation. The moves underscored the uneven impact of the rally across stocks, even as lower oil prices supported broader markets. The available evidence did not include verified closing prices for individual stocks.

Washington's remarks do not settle the course of negotiations: Reuters reported that Tehran does not intend to negotiate unless Washington takes practical steps to implement seven conditions set out in an interim agreement reached in June. Reuters also said attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz remained the subject of reports, keeping shipping risks in focus alongside falling oil prices. Against that backdrop, JPMorgan estimated a global oil supply surplus of about 1.4 million barrels a day in October, according to a Reuters report. OPEC production rose by 1.38 million barrels a day from the previous month to 22.87 million barrels a day. Markets are watching for the October U.S. Consumer Price Index release on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; the latest available reading, for September, showed headline inflation rising 0.6% month over month and 3.7% over 12 months, while core inflation rose 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year.