American Public Education Raises 2026 EPS Forecast to $2.59–$2.84

Key Facts

American Public Education raised its fiscal 2026 forecast range on November 9, after reporting results for the quarter ended September 30, setting diluted EPS at $2.59–$2.84, compared with its previous range of $2.48–$2.79. The revision also covered revenue, net income available to common stockholders and adjusted EBITDA, while the company lowered its capital spending forecast. The CEO said the company exceeded its third-quarter guidance for revenue, net income, adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS. She attributed the results to continued growth in Health+. Third-quarter figures presented a mixed picture, with revenue and net income rising while adjusted EBITDA declined.

Consolidated revenue reached $169.1 million, up 3.6% from $163.2 million in the year-earlier quarter. The company said about $6 million in revenue shifted into the fourth quarter because of the timing of enrollments in Military+. By segment, Health+ revenue increased 9% to $86.4 million, with the company attributing the growth mainly to higher enrollment in campus-based and online healthcare programs, as well as pricing. By contrast, Military+ revenue fell 0.5% to $82.7 million. The company linked the decline mainly to revenue shifting into the fourth quarter, explaining part of the divergence between growth in the healthcare segment and lower military revenue.

Net income available to common stockholders rose 6% to $5.9 million, from $5.6 million in the year-earlier period. But adjusted EBITDA fell to $17.5 million, compared with $20.7 million a year earlier. The company said the decline reflected revenue shifting into the fourth quarter, along with a $5.7 million increase in sales and promotional expenses and investment in marketing and integration. The quarterly report showed operating margin falling to 4.7% from 5.9%, as operating expenses increased $7.7 million year over year. Net income therefore improved alongside pressure on adjusted operating earnings and margin.

For the nine months ended September 30, revenue rose 5.1% to $515.6 million, from $490.5 million in the same period a year earlier. Net income also climbed to $33.4 million, compared with $18.9 million. The CEO said Health+ growth was supported by continued increases in campus-based and online healthcare enrollment, as well as pricing. She added that the third quarter was the first period in which the company operated partly as a single institution accredited by the Higher Learning Commission, after completing its institutional integration in early August. This background reflects the combination of enrollment growth and the company's transition to unified institutional operations during the quarter.

The company raised its annual revenue forecast to $695–$701 million, from $690–$698 million, and its forecast for net income available to common stockholders to $48.5–$53.2 million, from $46.5–$52.5 million. It also increased its adjusted EBITDA range to $98–$105 million, from $96–$104 million, and raised its diluted EPS range to $2.59–$2.84. By contrast, it lowered its capital spending forecast to $23–$26 million, from $25–$28 million. The revisions show higher estimates for revenue and earnings alongside a lower expected amount of capital investment for the year. The company's long-term plan targets revenue of between $892 million and $1 billion by 2029, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 20% and 21%.

For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of between $179.4 million and $185.4 million, net income of between $15.2 million and $19.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA of between $30.6 million and $37.6 million. Its diluted EPS forecast for the period is $0.81–$1.07. In enrollment, the company is targeting 100,000 to 105,000 net enrollments in Military+ during the quarter, and about 20,100 students in Health+. Military+ net enrollments rose 3.8% to 103,800 in the third quarter, from 100,000 a year earlier, while Health+ student numbers increased 2.5% to 19,100, from 18,600. These forecasts put enrollment and revenue shifted from the third quarter among the key performance indicators to be measured in the next period.