Waller Leans Toward 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike in December, With Larger Move Possible

Key Facts

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in London on November 10, 2026, that he leaned toward supporting a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December meeting if the data unfolded as he expected. He raised the possibility of a larger increase, saying a core inflation reading for October of around 0.3% or higher could prompt consideration of a 50-basis-point hike. Waller thus tied his next move to what the price data would show, rather than presenting a larger increase as a settled decision. His remarks came as the U.S. consumer price index report for October was scheduled for release that day. Sterling had closed at 1.34405 against the dollar the previous day, according to EL7 data.

Waller said inflation remained well above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% target and that tighter monetary policy would be necessary to bring it back toward the target path over the medium term. He cited September data showing the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year. He also said more than 70% of the index’s services price components recorded annual increases above 3% in September. The previous consumer price index report showed headline inflation rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year in September. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year over the same period.

Waller said energy prices had fallen from their elevated levels during the previous week, but remained higher than at the start of the year. He said their effect on inflation could persist through 2027 if oil prices remained high. The consumer price report for October was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on November 10. Ahead of the release, economists expected annual inflation to reach 3.9% in October, compared with 3.7% in September. The scheduled release time alone did not establish that the report was subsequently published that day.

Waller said he had voted to leave the policy rate unchanged at the committee’s most recent meeting, and that he had been prepared to wait at the October meeting before tightening policy. In Britain, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4% at its meeting ending November 4, in an 8-to-1 vote. The dissenting member favored a 0.5-percentage-point increase to 4.25%. The bank said British inflation was 3.5% in September and forecast it would rise to about 5% by mid-2027. The bank set its next monetary policy meeting for December 17, reaffirming that its decisions would depend on the evidence available at each meeting.