LNG Prices Top $30 as Europe Enters Winter With Lowest Storage Since 2013
Key Facts
LNG prices topped $30 per million British thermal units as the Northern Hemisphere entered winter 2026/27, according to Rystad Energy, with Europe beginning the heating season with low reserves. The International Energy Agency said European Union gas storage sites were entering the season at their lowest levels since 2013. The shortfall puts European and Asian buyers in fiercer competition for available supplies, particularly flexible cargoes that can be redirected between markets. The agency sees limited storage options in LNG-importing countries in Asia and South America as potentially making competition more difficult in the coming months. This could feed through to spot prices when demand rises, while winter conditions and supply flows remain decisive factors in the market balance.
Low European inventories coincide with a decline in global LNG supplies. The International Energy Agency forecast that global supply would fall by about 3%, or nearly 20 billion cubic metres, in 2026. The agency attributed part of the pressure to the near halt in LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which cut loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October 2026. These volumes affect the global market because Qatar and the UAE are sources of cargoes sought by competing import regions. The agency said low European inventories, together with limited storage among importers elsewhere, could intensify competition for a small number of flexible cargoes and lift spot prices during periods of stronger demand.
Spot-price movements in recent months have shown mounting pressure in Europe and Asia. European benchmark TTF gas prices rose about 70% year on year to an average of nearly $20 per million British thermal units between March and October 2026, according to the International Energy Agency. In Asia, spot LNG prices climbed about 80% to an average of $21.5 per million British thermal units over the same period. The gap between Asian and European prices narrowed from $2 per million British thermal units between March and July to about $1 between August and October. The narrowing gap points to more closely matched competition between the two markets for supplies ahead of the heating season, while higher prices likely to be paid for flexible cargoes matter more to buyers in both regions.
In Europe, the head of TotalEnergies said the continent would not face a gas shortage this winter but would have to pay more to secure adequate supplies. He attributed lower reserves to the easing of storage requirements one year ahead of when it was needed. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show that Germany's inventories, the largest in Europe, stood at 61.03% of capacity on November 1, 2026, compared with a European Union average of 74.62%. The head of Equinor said European inventories were at their lowest level for this time of year since 2011, and that Asia and Europe would compete for LNG, particularly if the weather turned cold. The comments reflect the distinction between no expected physical supply shortage and the higher cost of securing gas amid low reserves.
Recent market moves show how sensitive prices are to inventories and weather: European benchmark gas futures closed above €100 on October 28, 2026, for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. The International Energy Agency also estimated that European gas demand would fall 3% in 2026, with high prices curbing industrial use and gas consumption in power generation declining as renewable output rises. On storage, European Union inventories could fall below 10% of operational capacity by the end of March 2027 if the weather is colder than average and disrupted gas flows through Hormuz persist. The agency also warned that the pace of gas withdrawals from storage tends to slow when fill levels fall below 30% of operational capacity, leaving the market more exposed to cold snaps, outages and supply disruptions. Risks therefore remain tied to high demand coinciding with low inventories or disrupted supplies.
In Asia, Rystad said LNG prices at $30 or more per million British thermal units could discourage gas use and increase coal burn. A mild winter in Northeast Asia could curb heating and power demand, but would not guarantee lower prices amid weak European inventories and competition for cargoes. Upside risks include a cold snap in Europe, an El Niño-related drought in Latin America, or renewed supply disruption in the Gulf. By contrast, a return of Middle Eastern LNG and mild weather are among the downside risks cited by Rystad. The company forecast that stable transit through Hormuz in October could allow supplies to recover by the second quarter of 2027, while the possibility of renewed escalation remains.
The impact of low inventories could extend beyond the winter season if Europe needs to refill its storage sites at a faster pace over the summer. The International Energy Agency said low storage levels could increase the need for gas injections during summer 2027, extending tightness in the global market beyond winter. In Rystad's base case, Europe would need to raise LNG imports by about 15.15 million tonnes year on year through June 2027 to offset lower storage and a decline in imports in 2026. That would make European demand for cargoes part of the market equation in the first half of next year, alongside the prospect of some Middle Eastern supplies recovering. The market balance will depend on storage needs, weather and continued regular transit through Hormuz.