EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•9 November 2026•
4 min read

Gulf-to-India tanker rates rise to $61.9 a tonne in September

Key Facts

1The rate for very large crude carriers on the Persian Gulf-to-India route reached $61.9 a tonne on September 14, 2026.
2The cost of shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia exceeded $37 a barrel by mid-October, more than five times its level before the war.
3VLCC charter rates on the Gulf-to-Asia route topped $1.3 million a day by mid-October.
4India's annual consumer price inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August.

The rate for very large crude carriers on the Persian Gulf-to-India route reached $61.9 a tonne on September 14, 2026, up from $34.6 in August and $10.6 in February, according to estimates from Drewry Maritime Research cited by ThePrint. The comparison shows transport costs climbing in recent months as oil trade linked to the Gulf remains disrupted. By mid-October, the cost of shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia on a large tanker had exceeded $37 a barrel, more than five times its level before the war broke out, according to the International Energy Agency. The figures come as Asian refineries face higher costs for delivered crude. The agency said VLCC charter rates on the Gulf-to-Asia route had topped $1.3 million a day by mid-October.

The actual cost borne by an oil importer exceeds the published spot freight rate because that rate does not include the war-risk premium paid by the charterer, according to Drewry. The company said the importer's actual transport cost is higher than the quoted freight rate. Published rates alone therefore do not reflect the full burden refiners face when importing crude along the route. The International Energy Agency said higher delivered crude costs at Asian refineries pushed margins on crude coming from the Middle East to the region into negative territory in September. Higher transport costs affect refining economics, the agency said, when supply costs are added to the price of crude.

The International Energy Agency attributed the rise in freight rates to congestion near the Strait of Hormuz, trade diversions and increased ship-to-ship oil transfers. It said these factors lengthened cargo delivery times and reduced the efficiency of the available fleet. Demand for Suezmax and Aframax tankers, measured in tonne-miles, rose by about 20% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. The measure accounts for cargo volume and distance travelled, showing how longer voyages are adding to tanker demand. Drewry also said freight rates from West Africa to India had risen since August at a faster pace than rates on the Gulf-to-India route.

Higher shipping costs have also affected India's alternative supply options, with Drewry saying rates from West Africa to India had risen faster since August. A company official advised Indian oil companies to increase imports from West Africa, Latin America and the United States, saying rates on those routes were relatively lower without a war-risk premium. The recommendation comes amid disruption to the Saudi pipeline and the blockade of Bab el-Mandeb, factors Drewry said had boosted demand for alternative supplies. Alternative routes, however, have also seen rates rise. Comparisons between routes remain tied to the war-risk premium included in the cost of crude from the Gulf.

The International Energy Agency warned that continued disruption to oil trade could tighten the tanker market further. It said refineries may have to absorb higher costs, switch to crude grades less suited to their facilities or cut operating rates. Lower operating rates could further tighten supplies of diesel, kerosene and other oil products, according to the agency. It linked this possibility to upward pressure on prices paid by consumers. In India, the Ministry of Statistics said the October consumer price index release is scheduled for November 12, 2026, or the next working day if the date falls on a holiday.

India's annual consumer price inflation rose to 5.54% in September 2026 from 4.83% in August, according to the Ministry of Statistics. Annual food price inflation climbed to 7.74% in September from 5.97% the previous month. The Trading Economics calendar shows a consensus of 5.93% for October inflation, while its own forecast is 6.2% compared with the previous reading of 5.54% for September. The official reading is due on November 12. The calendar does not establish a specific causal link between freight rates and Indian inflation; the forthcoming October reading remains an indicator of the price trajectory after headline and food inflation rose in September.