U.S. Jobs Jump by 165,000 in October, Dollar Posts Biggest Daily Gain in Five Months
Key Facts
The U.S. economy added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on November 6, 2026, exceeding economists’ forecast of 65,000 jobs. The report prompted investors to increase their bets on tighter monetary policy: The Associated Press reported that the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 77%, up about 10 percentage points from Thursday. Reuters said market pricing for an increase of at least 25 basis points returned to nearly 80%. In currency markets, the dollar index rose 0.77% to 102.26 during the session and was poised for its biggest daily gain in about five months. EL7 data show the index closed at 102.179 on November 6, compared with 101.426 in the previous session.
October’s increase was well above expectations, while revisions showed employment in the prior two months was stronger than initially reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics raised its estimate of August jobs by 53,000 to 186,000 and revised September upward by 31,000, from 29,000 to 60,000. That left the August and September total 84,000 jobs higher than previously reported. The revisions place October’s report within a picture of a more resilient labor market than the estimates had recently indicated. They reinforce investors’ view that employment may continue to support activity, while the Fed’s next decision will also depend on the path of inflation.
Professional and business services led job growth in October, adding 70,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment also increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, although the available figures in the report did not include numbers for those gains. On wages, average hourly earnings for private-sector, nonfarm employees rose 0.4% to $38.00 in October. Average hourly earnings increased 3.1% over the 12 months through the same month. The figures keep wages among the labor-market indicators investors are monitoring ahead of the next inflation reading.
Labor-market data showed the unemployment rate fell despite 421,000 people joining the labor force in October, according to The Associated Press. Across 2026 through the November report, job gains averaged about 86,000 a month, compared with an average of 9,700 jobs a month in 2025. Even so, the pace of hiring remained below the average of 166,000 jobs a month in 2023 and 2024, and far below the 491,000 a month during the hiring boom in 2021 and 2022. These comparisons put October’s strength in context: the reading was above forecasts and this year’s running average, but followed a period of slower hiring relative to previous years. That contrast explains the market’s focus on whether the improvement is continuing or the month’s reading marks a temporary acceleration.
Interest-rate bets were reflected in U.S. assets: The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.3 basis points to 4.878% on November 6, according to Reuters via Fidelity. Meanwhile, the euro-dollar pair closed at 1.11406 that day, compared with 1.12186 on November 5, according to EL7 data. The pair’s decline is consistent with the dollar’s rise in the session, while the yield increase reflects a parallel move in the bond market after the jobs data. Reuters had linked the dollar’s gain to December rate-hike bets returning to levels near 80%. The Associated Press put the probability of a hike at 77%, a separate estimate based on FedWatch data cited by the agency.
Investors are turning their attention to the U.S. October Consumer Price Index, due on November 10, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The release will follow the jobs report and is among the data markets are watching to assess the path of inflation ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 27 and 28 on November 18 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The next jobs report, covering November, is scheduled for release on December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. These dates place the price data, meeting minutes and next labor report among the scheduled milestones ahead of the December interest-rate decision.