China’s LNG Imports Rise to 5.47 Million Tonnes in October

Key Facts

Kpler estimated China’s liquefied natural gas imports at 5.47 million tonnes in October 2026, up from 5.20 million tonnes in September, marking the country’s third-strongest month this year. Reuters reported the figures via Investing.com, putting estimated actual Chinese purchases in focus rather than assuming they would decline as winter approached. The October estimate came as spot LNG prices in North Asia remained high, while Chinese price data pointed to upward pressure in energy sectors. A one-month increase alone does not mean annual demand has recovered or that China has regained its position as the largest LNG importer. The month-on-month comparison remains the direct implication of the available October figures.

The spot price for LNG delivered to North Asia stood at $29.30 per million British thermal units in the week ended October 16, its highest level since December 2023. The price was nearly three times the $10.40 recorded in late February, before the conflict in Iran broke out, Reuters reported. The rise puts China’s October purchases in a market marked by high spot costs, but the available data do not link Kpler’s import volume estimate to any specific purchase price. Nor do they show that Chinese companies cut purchases because of ample domestic gas supplies or inventory withdrawals. The estimate of incoming shipments indicates volume, while the spot price reflects the cost of the Asian market over the period cited.

Market estimates offer differing views of total imports for the year. ICIS expects Japan’s imports to reach 62 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 61 million tonnes for China, while Kpler puts Japan at 63 million tonnes and China at 62 million tonnes. Both firms therefore expect Japan to surpass China in annual imports, despite the increase in the estimate for Chinese shipments in October. This reflects the difference between strength in a particular month and the full-year ranking: October’s increase alone is not enough to change the companies’ annual import estimates. The figures are annual forecasts from ICIS and Kpler, not final results for the year.

China had largely completed gas injections ahead of winter by the end of September, according to a Rystad Energy vice president, who said underground storage was 80% to 90% full, with some regions exceeding historical levels. Those levels provide context for the development of shipment demand, but do not by themselves show that China began drawing gas from storage after injections ended. On prices, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said oil and gas extraction prices rose 6.0% month on month in October, while coal mining and washing prices increased 2.7%. The bureau attributed the moves to higher international energy prices and their pass-through domestically, as well as seasonal pre-winter demand that supported prices in some energy-related industries. Gas production and supply prices recorded a 1.5% monthly increase.

Chinese customs data showed LNG imports fell 4.6% year on year in January–July, to 33.79 million tonnes. By contrast, imports from Russia rose 24.9%, and Russia’s share of China’s total imports increased to 12.5% from 9.5% in the same period a year earlier, according to data cited by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Qatar’s share fell to 14.5% from 30.7%, as shipments from Qatar to China declined 55.2% year on year. The figures show that the supplier mix changed in the first seven months, while Kpler’s estimate for October was higher than September’s imports. The World Bank also estimated that Chinese gas production expanded 6%, or 15 billion cubic metres, bolstering domestic energy security and displacing some LNG imports.

Alex Siu, an ICIS analyst, said high prices keep up to 15 million tonnes a year of spot cargo demand out of the market, adding that this suppressed demand could return if spot prices fall. His comment links purchase costs with potential demand, but does not provide a specific estimate for China’s October imports or the timing of any demand recovery. China’s trade balance release is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 03:00, with a consensus forecast of $126.5 billion, according to the Myfxbook calendar. The release date and overall forecast alone do not determine the direction of LNG imports, nor do they separate energy-sector data from the rest of China’s trade. Monthly shipment figures and annual import estimates therefore remain independent indicators of that release.