Russia-Ukraine Talks Open in Abu Dhabi Amid Dispute Over Donbas and Security Guarantees
Key Facts
Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 10, the first meeting of its kind since February, focusing on security guarantees and postwar arrangements. The Associated Press said the round followed three rounds of negotiations early in the year that failed to achieve a significant breakthrough. Washington is managing the discussions through two tracks: a military working group examining ceasefire monitoring and security arrangements, and a political one addressing the most sensitive territorial demands. The political track made no progress on territory in February, while the military track made significant progress that month, according to Axios. U.S. envoy Jared Kushner said Washington was seeking to “create a new framework and a new understanding based on the various previous institutions and understandings.”
The dispute over territory remains a central issue on the political track. Russia says it wants control of the entire Donbas region, while Ukraine is holding to a division of territory based on current front lines, according to Axios. The outlet quoted U.S. officials as saying both sides had shown some flexibility in their own positions, but any territorial agreement depends on resolving the security guarantees. February’s talks showed no progress on this issue, leaving the gap between Russia’s demand and Ukraine’s stated position in place. Dividing the negotiations into political and military tracks reflects an effort to address security arrangements in parallel with the unresolved territorial issue.
The guarantees Washington is discussing include the possibility of providing Ukraine with a defense commitment modeled on Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to a U.S. official quoted by Reuters. In an interview ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said postwar guarantees should specify in writing what would happen if Russia resumed its attack, who would take action, by what means and when. The head of Ukraine’s delegation, Rustem Umerov, said Ukrainians were waiting for the war to end and that Kyiv hoped to achieve “lasting peace for Ukraine.” Kushner said Washington was working on a new framework based on previous institutions and understandings. These statements put the specifics of any response to a future attack at the center of the discussion, alongside ceasefire mechanisms.
The trilateral meeting was preceded by a separate gathering between the Ukrainian delegation, U.S. envoys and representatives of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission, according to the Associated Press. Europeans did not join the main talks, while the separate meetings addressed possible security guarantees and the long-term security structure between Russia and Europe. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, “There is no solution without Europe, but with Europe.” In Paris, G7 diplomats met Ukraine’s foreign minister, and the U.S. State Department said the discussion covered negotiations to end the war, energy resilience and defense cooperation. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said European participation in direct talks would ultimately be positive, but “we still have a long way to go.”
In Abu Dhabi, Kyiv is seeking to discuss steps to de-escalate, including easing tensions in the Black Sea to allow grain exports and halting attacks on Ukrainian power facilities and Russian oil refineries ahead of winter. Its priorities also include arranging a possible trilateral summit next month in Miami, according to Axios. These demands link energy security and export flows with arrangements to halt the fighting, as negotiations continue on the military and political tracks. In parallel with the meetings, Russia launched 317 drones at Ukraine during an attack on the night of November 8 to 9, including 105 jet-powered drones, according to Ukraine’s air force as reported by the Associated Press. This comes as strikes continue while the parties discuss possible postwar security arrangements.
Public assessments of the chances of reaching an agreement have diverged. U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview aired Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv were “very close” to an agreement, adding that Ukraine would emerge from a settlement “different” without providing details. Rubio, by contrast, said there was still much work to do in the negotiations, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was not raising his expectations for the talks. The Associated Press reported no agreement or outcome when the Abu Dhabi meetings opened. Umerov said Ukrainians were waiting for the war to end, while territory and security guarantees remained on the negotiating table.
U.S. officials said envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner could travel to Moscow and Kyiv to meet Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy if the Abu Dhabi talks went well. At the same time, Kyiv is continuing consultations with its European partners, who are calling for a role in any arrangements concerning the security of the continent. Rubio said including them in direct talks would be a positive step, while acknowledging that the road remained long. The current talks focus on security guarantees and ceasefire monitoring, while the political track made no progress on territorial demands in February. The next steps will depend on the outcome of the ongoing meetings and whether discussions among the parties can continue.