Short positions in U.S. gas contract fall to 5,188 contracts as colder weather looms
Key Facts
Money managers held 5,188 short positions in the benchmark U.S. natural gas Henry Hub contract on Nov. 3, down 388 contracts from the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The decline comes as the gas market turns its attention to weather forecasts for the coming days, with the inventory withdrawal season for heating approaching. That puts market bets in the face of two competing factors: weather changes on one hand and available inventory levels on the other. The concentration of bearish bets was the focus of previous coverage of U.S. gas, but currently published data for the benchmark contract record money managers’ positions separately. The week’s move means short positions in this contract declined rather than increased over the comparison period.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission data cover the benchmark Henry Hub contract with the symbol 03565B, defining the scope of the 5,188-contract figure: money managers’ short positions in that contract as of Nov. 3. The weekly decline was 388 contracts compared with the data for Oct. 27, according to the report’s weekly changes field. These figures therefore do not represent total short positions across all natural gas contracts, nor do they alone establish that the market has reached a record level of bearish positioning. An EL7 story published on Oct. 27 had a headline figure of 192,728 contracts, in the context of coverage of bearish bets on U.S. gas. That figure remains dated background to previous coverage, while the newer figure concerns money managers’ positions in the specified Henry Hub contract.
On weather, the U.S. National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center forecast weather disturbances and possible rain in parts of the Northeast, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast during the period from Nov. 10 to 14. The center said colder air accompanying the passing disturbances could also support lake-effect showers in areas downwind of the Great Lakes. This forecast sets a time frame and specific regions for monitoring weather developments, without making a widespread cold spell a certainty. Temperature changes could affect demand for gas used for heating, but the scale of the impact depends on the weather’s path and the extent of the affected areas. The Northeast and Great Lakes forecasts therefore remain among the factors traders may monitor as midmonth approaches.
Inventory data offer a counterbalance to weather-related risks. Working gas in storage in the contiguous 48 U.S. states stood at 3,801 billion cubic feet on Oct. 30, after a weekly increase of 77 billion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Inventories were 54 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,747 billion. The agency expected the United States to begin the inventory withdrawal season on Nov. 1, with inventories 2% above the five-year average at the start of the season. It said extended periods of cold could lead to withdrawals exceeding its projections, making the duration and extent of the cold important factors alongside the starting inventory level.
Price history points to the gas market’s sensitivity to rising heating demand when it coincides with declining supply. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $7.72 per million British thermal units in January 2026, after Winter Storm Fern, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency linked this to increased heating demand that reduced available gas supplies. This is a reading from an earlier period and does not describe or forecast current price movements. It does, however, show why the market monitors weather during the heating season, alongside inventories and weekly changes in trading positions.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next weekly gas storage report on Nov. 13, 2026. The report will provide a subsequent reading on inventories after the withdrawal season has begun, while the Weather Prediction Center’s forecast covers the period from Nov. 10 to 14. The timing of the two releases makes it possible to compare weather developments with the actual change in inventories over the week. Trading-position data in this reading show that money managers’ short positions in the benchmark contract fell by 388 contracts through Nov. 3. Each of these indicators, within its own time frame, will remain a factor to monitor in the U.S. gas market as the heating season progresses.