Chinese Energy Investment Forecast to Reach $940 Billion in 2026
Key Facts
The Global Energy Transition 2026 report forecast that China’s energy investment would reach $940 billion in 2026, keeping it the world’s largest investor in the sector. Investing.com reported the figure, citing the report, which was released on November 7 during the 2026 Energy Transition Conference. The China Association of Enterprises for Reform and Development organized the conference. The figure is an estimate of investment over the year, not a final tally of spending carried out. The estimate forms part of a broader forecast that global energy investment will rise to $3.4 trillion this year.
The report estimated that global energy investment would grow 5% year on year in 2026, with about $2.2 trillion allocated to a group of areas. These include power grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear and renewable energy, energy efficiency and electrification. This allocation puts clean energy pathways and related infrastructure at the center of expected global spending. But it does not identify these areas as the direct driver of China’s projected $940 billion. The distinction matters when reading the Chinese figure as a national estimate within broader global forecasts.
Data from China’s National Energy Administration show that investment in major energy projects exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan in 2025 for the first time, with annual growth of about 11%. The administration said the pace of growth exceeded that of infrastructure and manufacturing investment over the same period by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points, respectively. In the first half of 2026, investment in grids rose 13.5%, in charging and battery-swapping facilities 21.8%, and in new energy storage 74.3% year on year. Investment in hydrogen also increased by more than 160%. These figures show expansion across several parts of the energy system, alongside the report’s forecast that China will remain the world’s leading investor in the sector.
In the first nine months of 2026, wind and solar investment accounted for about one-third of total investment in China’s energy sector. Installed renewable energy capacity reached 2.518 billion kilowatts at the end of September, up 14.6% year on year, and accounted for about 60.94% of total generating capacity. These sources added 1.8 billion kilowatts of new capacity during the period, or 71.7% of total additions. Renewable power generation reached 3.13 trillion kilowatt-hours, up about 8% year on year. That represented 41.8% of total electricity generation in the first nine months.
Renewable energy expansion coincided with a decline in coal’s share of power generation in the first half of the year. The Global Energy Transition report said coal-fired electricity accounted for 49.7% of China’s generation, the first time the share had fallen below 50%. In industrial activity, the RatingDog general manufacturing index stood at 52.0 in October, compared with 52.1 in September. The reading was above the Reuters poll forecast of 51.6. The private manufacturing survey said export order growth slowed, despite output rising at its fastest pace in six months.
Services, meanwhile, recorded a Caixin index reading of 50.8 in October, according to data released on November 4. The index came in below the forecast of 52.3 and the previous reading of 51.6. A reading above 50 indicates activity growth, but the decline from the previous month and the market forecast reflects a slower pace of expansion. Private surveys thus sent mixed signals on manufacturing and services in October. These indicators provide context for the investment forecasts without changing the fact that the $940 billion figure is an annual estimate of investment flows.
Attention now turns to the release of China’s November consumer price index, listed on the National Bureau of Statistics calendar for November 9 at 9:30 Beijing time. A market calendar published on November 6 also listed China’s October trade data for November 10. The calendar forecasts a trade surplus of $125.9 billion, compared with a previous surplus of $133.53 billion in September. Price and trade data are the next two milestones for tracking China’s economy after the October indicators. The trade release date and forecast are listed in the published market calendar, while the national bureau’s calendar sets the date for the price index release.