Brixmor Raises 2026 Forecast as New Lease Spreads Reach 42.6%
Key Facts
Brixmor raised its 2026 financial outlook after third-quarter results showed strong rent and occupancy growth. In results published on October 26 for the three months ended September 30, the company said lease spreads on comparable space reached 25.3%. The figure included 42.6% for new leases and 19.4% for renewals. The company raised its comparable-property net operating income forecast and also increased its guidance range for diluted Nareit FFO per share. The updates reflect stronger operating performance than previously expected, while leasing and occupancy figures offer a broader view of the sources of growth underpinning the company’s outlook.
Brixmor set its 2026 diluted Nareit FFO per-share forecast at $2.36 to $2.38, up from its previous range of $2.35 to $2.37. It also raised its comparable-property net operating income growth forecast to 5.50%–5.75%, compared with a previous range of 5.00% to 5.75%. The revision raises the low end of the operating income growth forecast, while the per-share range widened by one cent at both ends. The updated outlook was based on growth in income from existing properties and leasing momentum that the chief executive described as ongoing. Brian Finnegan said the results reflected “continued leasing momentum, strong comparable-property net operating income growth and record occupancy.”
Comparable-property net operating income rose 6.6% in the third quarter from the same period in 2025. For the first nine months of 2026, growth was 6.2% year over year. The quarterly comparison shows an acceleration in growth relative to the nine-month average, with both measures remaining above 6%. Gross leased occupancy also reached a record 95.6% as of September 30. Anchor occupancy was 97.0%, while small-shop occupancy was 92.8%, also a record for that category.
New leases on comparable space generated lease spreads of 42.6%, compared with 19.4% for renewals, bringing the overall spread to 25.3%. The results highlight a gap between pricing on newly leased space and renewals of existing leases during the quarter. The company also signed leases that have not yet commenced, covering 3.1 million square feet. Annualized base rent under those leases was $68.9 million as of September 30. Finnegan said signed leases yet to commence and the redevelopment program enhance visibility into earnings and cash flow growth, alongside leasing momentum and record occupancy.
Under its redevelopment program, Brixmor added new projects with an estimated cost of $36.7 million and an expected net operating income yield of 11%. Projects totaling $54.6 million also reached stabilization, with an average incremental net operating income yield of 10%. These figures indicate the returns the company expects from new projects and the results of projects that have reached stabilization. On distributions, the company announced a 7.3% increase in its quarterly cash distribution to $0.3300 per share. The distribution equals $1.32 per share annually and is payable on January 15, 2027, to shareholders of record on January 5, 2027.
The company is also preparing to complete its acquisition of Slate Grocery REIT, which it announced on September 28. Brixmor said in-place rents in Slate’s portfolio are on average 32% below rents in its existing portfolio, providing an opportunity to bring them in line with market levels. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions and approval by Slate unitholders. In trading, BRX shares closed at $29.56 on November 2, $29.41 on November 3 and $30.23 on November 4. The stock closed at $29.94 on November 5 and $30.02 on November 6, according to EL7 data.
Brixmor scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter 2026 results for February 4, 2027, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. The date falls after the first quarter of 2027, the expected timeframe for the Slate deal to close, subject to closing conditions and unitholder approval. The fourth-quarter results will be the first announced milestone following the annual outlook update included in the October results. The company will then report the period’s results and its subsequent outlook in the disclosure scheduled for investors. The information available here did not specify other figures the company will announce at that time.