Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Raises 2026 Profit Outlook After Strong Third-Quarter Results
Key Facts
The bank announced the revision on November 6, alongside results showing third-quarter net profit of 543 million euros, above the analyst consensus of 533 million euros provided by the bank. Revenue was about 2 billion euros, also exceeding expectations. But quarterly revenue of 1.998 billion euros was below 2.065 billion euros in the second quarter. The results therefore combine annual profit growth and an improved full-year target with pressure on quarterly revenue.
Third-quarter net profit rose 14.6% from the same period a year earlier, according to bank data reported by Borsa Italiana. In the first nine months of 2026, net profit increased 21.2% to 1.657 billion euros, while revenue rose 5.6% to 6.023 billion euros. Operating profit before provisions also reached 3.461 billion euros in the first nine months, up 10.2% year on year. In the third quarter alone, the figure was 1.161 billion euros, up 14.8% from a year earlier. The figures reflect continued year-on-year growth in profit and operating activity, even as revenue declined from the previous quarter.
The bank linked the increase in its pre-tax profit target to shareholders’ vote halting the Mediobanca merger, as costs associated with the plan will disappear, adding about 150 million euros to projected profit. By contrast, the bank said that not completing the merger means losing an expected capital benefit of more than 50 basis points in its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio. Chief Executive Luigi Lovaglio said the bank respects shareholders’ decision on the strategic proposals and will continue to work with the same discipline and responsibility. He said the cost of deposits rose during the quarter amid intensifying competition, a trend he said had also emerged at other banks in Europe. The improved outlook therefore reflects a trade-off between cost savings from scrapping the merger and funding and competitive pressures.
The decision to scrap the merger follows Monte dei Paschi’s acquisition of an 86% stake in Mediobanca in the previous year. In June 2026, the bank became the target of a 34 billion euro cash-and-share offer from its larger rival Intesa Sanpaolo, according to Reuters. Intesa’s public-offer period is expected to begin in the week of November 23, 2026. That timeline gives Monte dei Paschi’s results and revised outlook added significance as developments involving Mediobanca and Intesa’s offer continue. The bank also said scrapping the merger will mean it needs to issue a benchmark-sized senior bond before year-end for regulatory purposes.
In trading, BMDPF closed at $12.11 on November 6, compared with a close of $11.98 in the previous session on November 5, according to EL7 data. The stock thus rose between the two closes, while the available data did not provide a broader description of its intraday market performance. The third-quarter result, which beat analysts’ estimate for net profit, remains paired with a decline in revenue from the previous quarter and higher deposit costs that management attributed to competition. The next specific step in the transaction context is the expected start of Intesa’s offer period in the week of November 23; the bank must also issue the benchmark bond before year-end for regulatory purposes.