Iraq Targets Production of 10 Million Barrels a Day by 2030 and Seeks New Export Routes
Key Facts
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said on November 8 that the country aims to raise oil production to 10 million barrels a day by 2030 to strengthen the economy and support development. The announcement sets a new production target as Baghdad also moves to explore ways to expand routes for transporting crude. Shafaq News reported that al-Zaidi discussed on Thursday a pipeline linking Iraqi oil fields to ports on the Mediterranean and Red seas with representatives of a consortium proposing the project. The prime minister pledged to facilitate procedures for foreign companies, according to the report. Oil is the largest source of revenue for the Iraqi government, the Associated Press reported, making the ability to produce and transport crude an important part of efforts to support the economy.
In his published remarks, al-Zaidi did not link the announced production target to the pipeline project he discussed; the target and talks on the project were presented as separate tracks. Baghdad is considering a proposed project to link southern fields to the city of Haditha, then connect the route to Turkey’s Ceyhan port and Syria’s Baniyas port. In July, the Cabinet authorized Basra Oil Company to sign preliminary agreements to study two routes: Basra–Haditha–Kirkuk–Ceyhan and Basra–Haditha–Baniyas. The report said the studies do not create any financial or contractual obligation for the ministry at this stage. The Associated Press estimated that the proposed pipeline could carry about 2 million barrels a day, a projected capacity for a project under consideration.
The proposed route offers a potential link between Iraq and outlets on the Mediterranean and Red seas, alongside the existing Ceyhan route through Turkey. But the pipeline’s estimated capacity does not represent flows currently available, as the routes remain at the study stage, according to published information. The project differs from the Iraq-Turkey agreement signed in August 2026, which runs for one year and sets a minimum of 750 thousand barrels of crude exports a day through the Ceyhan pipeline. The agreement provides an existing framework for exports through the north, while the new pipelines require the studies to be completed and progress toward implementation. Diversifying export routes is significant for a country whose government relies heavily on oil revenue, according to the Associated Press.
The new production target comes amid broader Iraqi plans to increase production capacity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says the Oil Ministry plans to raise crude production capacity to 7 million barrels a day by 2029. That figure concerns planned production capacity, while al-Zaidi’s announcement sets a target for actual production of 10 million barrels a day by 2030. The difference between the two measures reflects that reaching the announced target would require increased production capacity, alongside development of routes to transport crude to markets. The published remarks did not include details on the pipeline’s cost or implementation schedule.
As part of the next steps, al-Zaidi reviewed plans to develop the oil sector for the period from 2027 to 2030 at a meeting, Reuters reported. The plans include increasing production at fields in the Kurdistan Region and expanding exploration areas, as well as a call to hold a conference for international oil companies to attract investment and technology. Iraqi energy analyst Walid Khadduri told Reuters in September that Iraq’s output is determined by OPEC+ quotas and that Baghdad cannot increase production freely unless it leaves the group. He said: "Iraq’s output is determined by OPEC+ quotas, and it cannot increase production as it wishes unless it leaves the group." This places the 2030 target within a broader effort combining sector development and export routes with the constraints of production arrangements.