EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•7 November 2026•
3 min read

China Draws Up Plan to Expand Domestic Demand in 2026–2030 and Accelerates Consumption Support

Key Facts

1The commission drew up an implementation plan for the 2026–2030 strategy to expand domestic demand and said it would speed up its preparation and execution.
2The manufacturing new orders index stood at 49.4 in October, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
3The non-manufacturing new orders index reached 44.4 in October, after falling 2.1 percentage points from the previous month.
4Retail sales of goods and services grew 2.6% year over year in the first three quarters of 2026.
5China’s trade surplus reached $938.1 billion in the first nine months of the year.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission said on October 20 that it would work with relevant authorities to expand domestic demand with stronger and more effective measures. The move comes as the commission prepares an implementation plan for the 2026–2030 strategy to expand domestic demand, which it said it would speed up. The commission said consumption had shown signs of steady improvement and that final consumption expenditure contributed more to growth in the first nine months of the year. But demand indicators released later in October showed declines in manufacturing and services activity. The commission said, "Authorities will work with relevant departments to expand domestic demand with greater force and more effective measures."

In the National Bureau of Statistics survey, the manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4 in October, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The bureau said the reading pointed to a decline in demand conditions in industry. The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.7, while the new orders index in the sector stood at 44.4, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. By contrast, RatingDog’s services survey registered 50.8 in October, compared with 51.6 in September, remaining above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Reuters attributed the slowdown in services to declining confidence as businesses faced fierce competition and rising costs.

Available retail data paint a mixed picture of spending. Total retail sales of goods and services grew 2.6% year over year in the first three quarters of 2026, with services sales growing faster than goods sales, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 37,000.1 billion yuan from January to September, up 1.1% year over year. In September alone, sales reached 4,243.3 billion yuan, rising 1.1% year over year. The figures show growth in total sales alongside a limited increase in goods sales in September.

The production index in the official survey fell to 49.8 from 51.7. Associated Press coverage links weak domestic demand to the continued downturn in the property sector and says Chinese companies are shipping more goods abroad in search of buyers. The agency also said strong exports supported growth while domestic consumption and investment remained weak under pressure from the years-long property slump. In September, exports rose 36.3% and imports 31% year over year, while the monthly trade surplus reached $133.5 billion.

The commission’s plan includes measures to increase the share of spending on public services in fiscal expenditure, strengthen policies that reach consumers directly, and expand and improve goods consumption. It also said it would push ahead with 109 major projects included in the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030, alongside the "six networks" initiative. The commission said funds allocated to long-term special treasury bonds would be used more effectively and that new policy-based financing instruments would be deployed more quickly. This comes as China’s trade surplus reached $938.1 billion in the first nine months of the year, according to Associated Press. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to publish its consumer price index report on November 9, 2026.