Wheat futures fall 1.3% to $5.91¼ as markets await Russia-Ukraine deal
Key Facts
December-delivery wheat futures fell 1.3% on Friday, November 6, to $5.91¼ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade after U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected a deal between Russia and Ukraine soon. A Dow Jones report via MarketScreener linked the decline in futures to Trump’s remarks, in a session when expectations of a political understanding became a factor affecting prices. Trump said the deal would be a "big deal" and could involve parties beyond Ukraine. He added that it could include all of Europe, without offering details of its terms. The remarks followed Trump’s meeting with a Russian envoy at the White House on Thursday.
Trump did not disclose what he discussed in his meeting with Kirill Dmitriev, envoy for Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the Kremlin did not comment on Friday on his remarks about a potential deal, according to the Associated Press. The European Commission spokeswoman said Brussels looked forward to seeing the deal materialize, but stressed that much work was needed to achieve it. She added that she had seen no major movement from the Russian side, indicating that the U.S. remarks were not accompanied by an announcement of clear negotiating progress. These positions leave the distance between Trump’s expectation and an executable deal undefined. For the wheat market, the driver the report linked to the decline remained the possibility of a deal as Trump described it, rather than disclosed details about the course of negotiations.
Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said prices fell to new lows after Trump’s remarks, following a period of consolidation in the previous week. Bergman wrote that the risk of further downside "is not believed to be significant from these levels." This reflects his assessment of the remaining room for declines after the session’s drop, not a guarantee of the price direction in coming sessions. The report did not specify a target price or an additional numerical forecast. It also did not attribute the move to a narrowing of the Black Sea supply risk premium.
Food and Agriculture Organization data show that the market backdrop is not limited to political developments: the agency’s cereal price index fell 4.5% in October from September. The FAO attributed wheat’s decline within the index to weak international demand and improving production prospects, particularly in Argentina. At the crop level, the agency forecast that global cereal production in 2026 would fall from the record level set in 2025, while remaining the second-highest on record. The expected decline covered all major cereals and was set to be most pronounced in wheat. These forecasts put demand pressures and crop prospects alongside political remarks in the market picture, without explaining Friday’s session move on their own.
In trade, the agency forecast that global cereal trade would contract by 17.4 million tonnes, or 3.3%, to 507.7 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. Wheat was the main driver of this decline, with the agency projecting its trade would fall by 18.1 million tonnes, or 8.6%, during the season. The agency linked lower shipments from major exporters to supply or logistics constraints. By contrast, it forecast global cereal stocks would rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the end of the seasons in 2027. It said the increase largely reflected higher wheat stocks in Russia and Ukraine, with export disruptions contributing to the buildup in supplies.
The next political milestone is a planned trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, which the Associated Press said would be the first three-way peace talks since February. According to the report’s account of a post by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, they were scheduled for November 10 and 11. Witkoff said discussions would focus on postwar security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts and next steps toward peace. Ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government was seeking specific guarantees from its Western allies on the postwar security support mechanism. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, scheduled for release on November 10, will be another milestone for traders; a grain trader described its risks as skewed to the downside.