Dollar Rebounds to 101.80 as US Jobs Report Looms and Rate-Hike Bets Persist
Key Facts
The dollar index rose to the 101.80 range during the final hour of Friday’s Asian session on November 6, 2026, extending its recovery from its lowest level since late September, according to an FXStreet report. The rebound followed the index’s drop to that low the previous day, while it remained on track for modest weekly losses. The move came as markets awaited the US jobs report for October, due later in the day. The report is an important test of labor-market strength and the monetary-policy path, while rate-hike bets remain in place. According to FXStreet, traders continued to price in a roughly 70% chance that the US central bank would raise borrowing costs in December.
FXStreet attributed support for the dollar to a rebound in US Treasury yields after their midweek decline, and to inflation concerns sparked by rising oil prices. These factors kept expectations for tighter monetary policy in the market, alongside pricing of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike in December. The report also said geopolitical uncertainty bolstered demand for the dollar as a safe haven. Sources of concern included President Donald Trump’s remarks about the possibility of destroying what remains of Iran, as well as the US-Iran dispute over the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. The report said, "Geopolitical uncertainty supports the possibility of further gains in the US dollar."
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week ended October 31, from 195,000 the previous week, according to data reported by Yahoo Finance. The reading was below analyst expectations reported by Bloomberg, which pointed to claims rising to 196,000. The data provide a weekly gauge of layoffs but came ahead of the monthly report awaited by investors. The September report showed 29,000 nonfarm jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics describing both changes as modest. Job openings held at 7.5 million in September, while hires were steady at 5.4 million, according to the bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report.
Forecasts cited by FXStreet indicate that the US economy added 65,000 jobs in October, compared with September’s 29,000, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the report’s release for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. These estimates place the anticipated jobs reading in the context of previous data showing modest employment growth and stability in job openings and hires. Investors will compare the actual figures with these forecasts to assess the labor market’s resilience. The report’s results remain a factor in rate pricing, alongside Treasury yields and inflation risks that supported the dollar in the session.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed nonfarm business labor productivity rose 3.6% in the third quarter of 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Output increased 3.7% during the quarter, while hours worked rose 0.1%, according to the bureau’s statement. By contrast, nonfarm unit labor costs fell 0.7% in the third quarter, despite rising 2.4% over the four quarters ending in that period. The figures offer a mixed picture of production and labor costs, with higher productivity coinciding with lower unit costs during the quarter. The revised productivity and costs reading is scheduled for release on December 8, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
EL7’s daily data for the dollar index showed a close of 101.605 points on November 5, compared with a close of 101.425 points on November 4. These closes put the previous day’s move in the context of the recovery that extended into the next Asian session, when the index reached the 101.80 range. After the jobs report, the US Consumer Price Index for October is due on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, marking a subsequent point in the inflation watch. The Federal Reserve will also hold its next meeting on December 8 and 9. The December meeting follows the scheduled December 8 release of the revised productivity and costs reading, with markets continuing to price in a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike, according to FXStreet.