Trump weighs resuming all-out war on Iran after midterm elections
Key Facts
US President Donald Trump said Thursday he would soon decide whether the United States would resume an all-out war on Iran, following a meeting with his top national security advisers. Axios quoted Trump as saying he would make the decision after the midterm elections, suggesting the election results had become an immediate backdrop to the decision. Trump and his advisers discussed Iran for the first time since the elections during the weekly intelligence briefing, according to US officials cited by Axios. Trump said: "I’d prefer not to destroy what’s left of the country if I can, but I may have to. You’ll know soon enough." The statement puts the possibility of resuming military operations alongside pressure and negotiation options, without announcing a final decision.
According to Axios, Trump is weighing three paths: launching new strikes, continuing to economically strangle the Iranian regime, or reaching a deal that would include major concessions from Tehran. These options were laid out after Thursday’s meeting, while Trump did not specify in his remarks which path he would choose. The deliberations are taking place alongside regional diplomatic contacts, keeping negotiations on the table alongside the threat of escalation. Axios reports that a proposal under discussion through Qatari mediation would divide confidence-building measures into two phases over two days. The first phase would include lifting the US naval blockade and releasing some frozen Iranian funds, while the second would involve reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held calls Thursday with regional mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Oman and Egypt, according to Axios. Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said Araghchi discussed efforts to strengthen security and stability in the region with Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. Qatar’s foreign ministry said he also spoke with its foreign minister about coordinating efforts to ease tensions. The calls reflect regional activity alongside deliberations in Washington, while the Qatari proposal remains tied to reciprocal steps involving the naval blockade, the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue. Iraq’s prime minister also spoke with Trump on Thursday about regional developments, security and prospects for the next phase, according to his office.
The White House deliberations came after the midterm elections, in which Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged in remarks afterward that higher gasoline costs were "not the kind of thing you can campaign on and brag about." In a separate comment, Trump said election losses would not affect his calculations on Iran, adding: "If we have to finish what we started in Iran, we are fully committed to doing so." Polling data cited by the Associated Press showed that about 6 in 10 voters considered US military action against Iran the wrong decision, while about a third said the war was a decisive factor in their vote for Congress. These figures add political context to the decision Trump said he would announce soon, but do not determine which course the administration will take. The new Congress, controlled by Democrats, is scheduled to take office in January.
Oil prices moved higher in the same session as supply concerns returned following attacks on tankers in the Gulf. Reuters reported that Brent crude settled Thursday up $3.67, or 3.88%, at $98.29 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.40, or 2.72%, to $90.52. The gains came after both benchmarks fell more than 8% on Wednesday to their lowest settlements since August 31, according to Reuters. Eurasia Group said its estimate of the likelihood of renewed US strikes had fallen to 60% from 65%, and it cut the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%, while raising the likelihood of continued confrontation from 15% to 30%. The group estimated that escalation could push Brent into a range of $110 to $125 a barrel; this was a scenario cited by the group, not an outcome realized in the market.
The safety of shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains part of energy calculations amid continuing maritime incidents. Reuters cited the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency as saying that at least 5 ships had reported incidents since Sunday, and that 35 ships were targeted in October, the highest monthly total during the war. In this context, Citi analysts said there were concerns that the administration could use its executive powers over foreign policy to escalate the war after the elections. US allies in the Middle East also warned that renewed strikes could destabilize the region and prompt the Houthis to step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping in the Red Sea. The Associated Press said China plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November.