Sempra Expects Oncor’s Capital Plan to Rise 20%, Will Announce Final Value in February
Key Facts
Sempra said on November 5, 2026, that Oncor’s baseline capital spending plan for 2027–2031 is expected to increase by about 20% compared with the current baseline plan for 2026–2030. The company has not yet set the final value of the new plan and will announce it on its fourth-quarter earnings call in February 2027. Sempra linked the expected increase to a broad investment portfolio needed to maintain grid reliability and keep pace with load growth in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas market. The move puts Oncor’s grid expansion at the center of the company’s results update, alongside rising demand and annual earnings guidance. The $47.5 billion figure applies to Oncor’s current 2026–2030 plan, announced in February 2026, and is not the value of the upcoming plan.
Third-quarter data offered an indication of the demand pressure the grid is preparing to meet: Oncor recorded a new peak of 33.3 gigawatts, up 6% from the previous record of 31.4 gigawatts set the prior year. Sempra said about 24 gigawatts of large loads in Oncor’s territory were classified as foundational loads, including 10 gigawatts already connected. Loads classified as under study totaled 21 gigawatts, highlighting the size of the potential queue for grid capacity. These figures align with the company’s explanation for the investment plan, which focuses on supporting load growth and service continuity. Oncor said its active interconnection request queue for commercial and industrial customers included 650 requests at the end of 2025, including about 255 gigawatts for data centers and more than 18 gigawatts for other industrial sectors.
Expansion work includes high-voltage transmission projects in the Permian Basin. Oncor filed applications for certificates of convenience and necessity for two 765-kilovolt transmission projects along Import Paths 1 and 2 of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan. The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved segments of Path 1 in August, but the decision remained subject to motions for rehearing and appeals. These regulatory steps are part of the expansion needed to meet new loads and strengthen the grid’s ability to transmit electricity. Across the parent company, Sempra said its businesses invested about $10 billion in capital during the first nine months of 2026 to support safe, reliable energy supplies for the communities they serve. In 2025, Oncor completed, rebuilt or upgraded about 3,100 circuit miles of transmission and distribution lines, and added more than 65,000 service points as Texas’s population and businesses grew.
On results, Sempra’s third-quarter adjusted earnings rose to $917 million, or $1.40 per diluted share, from $728 million and $1.11 per share in the same period of 2025. GAAP earnings were $877 million, or $1.34 per share, compared with $77 million and $0.12 per share a year earlier. In the first nine months of 2026, adjusted earnings totaled $2.670 billion, compared with $2.253 billion in the same period of 2025. The company said it was tracking toward the upper end of its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share range of $4.80–5.30, and updated its GAAP earnings-per-share range to $7.41–8.41. It reaffirmed its 2027 earnings-per-share range of $5.10–5.70.
Against the backdrop of Oncor’s current plan, the company identified about $10 billion in potential additional capital spending opportunities during 2026–2030, including high-voltage transmission expansions and connections for large commercial and industrial customers. Oncor described its current $47.5 billion plan as designed to meet expected load growth and strengthen the grid and its reliability, and linked support for the plan to the settlement of its rate review filed with the Texas regulator. Sempra also said in an investor presentation that recent endorsements from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas bolstered confidence in Oncor’s additional $10 billion in opportunities, with potential upside tied to the “Batch Zero” process through 2030. The company said the sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR affiliates was on track, with completion expected within the two weeks following the November 5 announcement. Sempra shares closed at $82.9 on November 4, 2026.