Brent Set for 12% Weekly Loss Despite Rising 1.31% to $99.58
Key Facts
The January Brent contract rose 1.31% to $99.58 a barrel by 0504 GMT on Friday, November 6, after briefly topping $100 during morning trading, according to a Reuters report published via MarketScreener. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.95% to $91.38 a barrel at the same time. But the daily gains did not erase the accumulated losses: Brent was set to fall 12% for the week, while the report forecast a 12.1% decline in WTI. The move came as the market weighed expectations of de-escalation linked to the elections against supply concerns in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The session’s direction diverging from the week’s trend reflected a rebound in prices amid a sharp sell-off, not a shift in their weekly course.
Reuters said oil prices fell 8% on Wednesday alone, after Democrats made gains in the midterm elections, taking prices to their lowest in two months. In EL7 closing data, Brent settled at $94.62 a barrel on November 4, below the $95 level that the Associated Press said crude fell beneath that day. The report linked the price decline to expectations of de-escalation after President Donald Trump’s party suffered losses in the elections. After the results, Iranian officials said the vote reflected American voters’ rejection of the war, while Trump’s decision on Iran remained unresolved, according to the Associated Press. These expectations limited the risk premium that had supported oil, with the course of U.S. policy toward the war still being watched.
Prices rose again the following day, with Brent gaining 3.9% to $98.29 a barrel on Thursday, recovering some of its nearly 9% drop in the previous session, according to the Associated Press. EL7 data showed Brent closing at $98.29 on November 5, while WTI settled at $90.52 a barrel the same day. The recovery came as concerns about shipping security in the strait resurfaced. Iranian television reported on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Associated Press. The claim could not be independently verified, but reports of a maritime incident kept supply risks in focus in oil trading, even as broader bets on escalation eased.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data show the scale of the change in oil flows through the strait: total flows were 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, then fell to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. The decline puts the security of the passage at the heart of the market’s sensitivity to any maritime developments, as concerns about supply disruption continued to support prices during declines. Brent had reached $111.05 a barrel in the headline of an EL7 report published on October 20, amid rising shipping risks in the Middle East. That reading provides context for the scale of the shift in risk pricing since then, while this week’s losses came amid political expectations of de-escalation. Prices therefore moved between the impact of political expectations on one side and transit and supply risks on the other.
Tim Waterer, an analyst at KCM, said Friday’s rise was a technical recovery after the sell-off and that Strait of Hormuz risks had not disappeared. He added: "Until a reliable route for safer and lower-cost passage through the Gulf becomes available, oil is likely to remain supported on dips and vulnerable to sharp moves on any headlines about escalation." The assessment indicates that the daily rebound reflected the recovery of some losses, while security developments remained capable of moving prices sharply. On production, the seven countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement decided to keep December 2026 production at the required level for September 2026. The organization set November 29, 2026, as the date of its next meeting to review market conditions, the next date cited in the statement for assessing supply conditions.