Moderna Raises 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook to 15%–25% After 29% Quarterly Increase
Key Facts
Moderna raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to a range of 15%–25%, from a previous forecast of up to 10%, after third-quarter revenue rose 29% year over year to $1.3 billion. Revenue was above the average analyst estimate of $885.1 million, according to data compiled by LSEG and cited by Reuters. The company said in its filing that quarterly growth came primarily from higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by deliveries under long-term strategic government partnerships. Moderna returned to profitability, reporting net income of $162 million, compared with a net loss of $200 million in the same period of 2025. The raised outlook, alongside the quarterly results, puts external demand and spending trends at the forefront of the company’s financial update.
The company recorded $780 million in revenue in the United States and $533 million in international markets in the third quarter. These figures show the two markets’ contributions to total revenue, while the company attributed growth primarily to international sales and government deliveries. Moderna expects about half of its 2026 revenue to come from the United States and the other half from international markets. That means the annual outlook is based on a broader geographic mix than the quarter’s revenue alone. Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel said, "We delivered 29% revenue growth in the third quarter, alongside U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA, our fifth globally approved product, and positive Phase 3 results for the intismeran melanoma trial."
The improved result was accompanied by a 27% year-over-year decline in third-quarter research and development expenses to $583 million. The company attributed the decrease primarily to lower clinical development costs after the completion of some late-stage studies, as well as cost efficiencies. Moderna lowered its 2026 research and development expense forecast to about $2.7 billion, from about $2.9 billion previously. It also cut its estimate for full-year GAAP operating expenses by about $0.2 billion compared with its prior estimate. The revisions show that the outlook update also covers spending, alongside revenue growth and the return to quarterly profitability.
Moderna raised its forecast for cash and investments at the end of 2026 to a range of $8.1–8.3 billion, from a previous estimate of $4.7–5.2 billion. The company said the new outlook reflects improved operational execution and proceeds from convertible bond financing. Cash, cash equivalents and investments totaled $8.0 billion on September 30, 2026, compared with $6.9 billion on June 30. The company attributed the quarterly increase primarily to net proceeds of $2.6 billion from the issuance of convertible bonds and related capped call transactions. This distinguishes the liquidity balance recorded at quarter-end from the higher year-end forecast, which also reflects financing sources and operating expectations.
In its product portfolio, Moderna plans a limited U.S. launch of its mFLUSIVA influenza vaccine during the 2026–2027 season. The company said the approval came after the annual contracting cycle, prompting it to plan a limited launch that season. The intismeran autogene program, developed with KEYTRUDA, reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% compared with KEYTRUDA alone, according to the Phase 3 results reported by the company. Moderna said a prespecified sensitivity analysis showed a 58% reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death after six months. The companies are working on regulatory submissions and preparing for a potential commercial launch contingent on approvals, without specifying a launch date in the statement.
Moderna scheduled its Analyst Day for November 12, 2026, after reporting third-quarter results and raising its revenue growth outlook. The date is part of the company’s announced schedule, while the new outlook includes revisions to revenue, research and development expenses, and liquidity. The Analyst Day will be the company’s next opportunity to present its developments, according to the filing. Until then, the planned influenza vaccine launch remains limited and seasonal in the United States. Any potential commercial launch of the melanoma program also remains contingent on regulatory submissions and approval.