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Macro EconomyMedium•6 November 2026•
1 min read

Japan Q3 GDP Growth Expected to Slow to 0.3% as Consumption Falters

Key Facts

1A Reuters poll expects Japan's real GDP to have grown at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q3, down from 1.4% in the previous quarter.
2Private consumption is expected to decline by 0.2% with net external demand dragging growth by 0.4 percentage points.

A Reuters poll expects Japan's real gross domestic product to have grown at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026. This forecast indicates a significant slowdown from the 1.4% expansion recorded in the previous quarter, driven by a contraction in private spending and negative contributions from net exports.

Reuters reported that private consumption is expected to decline by 0.2%, marking a potential drag on the economy alongside a 0.4 percentage point reduction from net external demand. These figures complicate the Bank of Japan's path toward further interest rate hikes, following the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on November 4, 2026.

Upcoming economic data including Household Spending for both the month and year are scheduled for release on November 9, 2026. The Summary of Opinions and Current Account data will also be released on the same day, providing further context on the nation's economic trajectory.