Iraq Rejects Use of Its Territory for Attacks, Warns of Disaster if Drawn Into War
Key Facts
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi reiterated Baghdad’s rejection of the use of its territory as a launchpad for attacks on neighboring countries during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, November 5, and called for respect for state sovereignty and the adoption of peaceful solutions. Al-Zaidi’s office said the call discussed developments in the region, security updates and prospects for the coming period, while Baghdad and Washington affirmed the importance of supporting regional stability. According to Jordan’s Petra news agency, the two sides stressed the need to prioritize dialogue and diplomacy, contain tensions and prevent the conflict from spreading. The position puts Iraq at the center of a declared effort to keep its territory out of the confrontation, as Baghdad warns of renewed U.S. attacks on Iran. It comes alongside efforts to preserve channels for dialogue amid mounting fears that the war could spread.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said the possibility of renewed U.S. attacks on Iran “is no secret,” warning Iraqi armed factions against taking part in any Iranian response. Al Jazeera quoted Hussein as saying that dragging Iraqi society into war “will lead to a disaster,” adding: “We are not ready for war; neither Iraqi society nor the armed forces are ready for it.” The warning highlights a practical challenge to Baghdad’s declared position of neutrality: keeping Iraqi territory from being used as an operations ground requires limiting the involvement of armed groups in the escalation. Hussein said Iraq does not belong to any axis and does not want to turn its territory into a battlefield. He added that the country needs a clear policy to keep it out of the war, amid the risk of renewed confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
Hussein said Iraq had come under attacks from the United States and Iran, as well as from armed groups inside the country, following U.S. strikes on Iran. He said Iraq had become a battlefield, underscoring the difficulty of containing the effects of the escalation within its borders. The risk is all the more significant because Iraq’s economy depends on oil exports that usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported that Iraqi oil exports through the strait were largely disrupted when Tehran closed it, before Iraq became one of the few countries Iran granted an exemption to pass freely. That dependence adds a direct economic dimension to Baghdad’s efforts to prevent the war from spreading.
Iraq has lost more than $60 billion in oil revenue since the start of the war, according to Al Jazeera, while about 90% of its oil exports usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil accounts for about 90% of the federal budget, making any disruption to exports a threat to a major source of state revenue. This comes as Iraq faces domestic security risks alongside disruption to the export route on which its oil shipments depend. Since taking office in May, al-Zaidi has prioritized disarming armed groups in the country, the same report said. That priority places Hussein’s call for factions not to join any Iranian response within a broader effort to keep Iraq out of the confrontation.
On the U.S. decision-making front, Axios reported on Thursday that Trump was weighing three options: launching new strikes on Iran, continuing economic pressure on it, or reaching an agreement involving concessions. The outlet said Qatari mediators had continued talks with the Iranians and the White House on a draft calling for both sides to take confidence-building steps over two days, including lifting the U.S. naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press, meanwhile, said Trump had threatened for weeks to resume a large-scale bombing campaign against Iran after the election if Tehran did not reach a settlement on terms acceptable to him. These diplomatic and military options provide context for Baghdad’s warning that any new escalation could draw Iraq into a confrontation it does not want. The possibility of renewed strikes remained a central factor in regional calculations on the day of the call.
Oil prices fluctuated as market expectations about the course of the confrontation shifted. Brent crude closed up $3.67, or 3.88%, at $98.29 a barrel on Thursday, November 5, according to Reuters. The rise followed a drop of more than 8% in both oil benchmarks the previous day, when Brent fell below $95 a barrel to settle at its lowest in two months, the Associated Press reported. Reuters quoted Eurasia Group as cutting its estimate of the chance of renewed U.S. strikes to 60% from 65%, and lowering the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%. The group, by contrast, raised its estimate of the likelihood that the confrontation would continue to 30% from 15%. Those estimates remain tied to developments in the three options Trump was weighing and to talks on confidence-building steps and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.