IEA Expects 4,800 GW of Renewable Capacity Additions by 2031

Key Facts

The International Energy Agency expects global renewable power capacity to increase by about 4,800 GW over 2026–2031, up 57% from the previous six years, according to its report released on November 6, 2026. The estimates place clean energy expansion at the forefront of shifts reshaping the global supply mix. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, "Energy security is today the main driver of renewable energy expansion." He noted that more countries are seeking to reduce their exposure to imported fuels and price volatility. The report comes as the Hormuz crisis has sharpened the focus on energy security, though the agency did not attribute the acceleration in project deployment to it alone.

One of the most notable geographic shifts in the outlook is that capacity additions in emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to match those in advanced economies for the first time during the forecast period. China remains the largest single contributor to global renewable capacity growth, but its share is expected to fall from more than 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the coming period. India stands out as the second-largest market for capacity growth after China. The agency expects India's total renewable capacity to more than double by 2031. The estimates reflect a broader growth base beyond traditional centers, alongside China's continued weight in global additions.

Solar photovoltaics are set to lead expected growth, accounting for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity additions through 2031, followed by onshore wind. By region, capacity additions in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to approach three times their level over the previous six years. The agency also raised its forecast for capacity growth in sub-Saharan Africa by 54% from its previous report. It expects solar photovoltaics to account for more than 80% of new capacity in the region. The figures show a gap between the widening opportunities for expansion and each region's starting position: China, the United States and the European Union together accounted for 79.5% of global additions in 2025, compared with 1.6% for Africa.

The 2025 record provides context for the scale of additions underpinning the International Energy Agency's outlook. The world added 692 GW of renewable capacity that year, expanding the capacity stock by 15.5%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency's statistics. Solar accounted for nearly three-quarters of additions, with a record 510 GW added, while wind power added 159 GW. The figures show previous growth concentrated in two main sources, consistent with the IEA's expectation that solar and onshore wind will continue to lead expansion. The new estimate puts total expected additions over 2026–2031 at about 4,800 GW.

Growth is not limited to power generation: the agency expects renewable energy use in transport to rise by more than 60% by 2031, covering 6% of global transport energy demand by then. For liquid biofuels, the agency raised its forecast for production growth by 40% from last year's report, citing higher fuel prices and energy security concerns. The forecasts reflect growing interest in renewable alternatives for uses beyond the power sector. Grid connection data, meanwhile, point to a challenge in turning planned projects into operational capacity. Renewable and advanced storage projects awaiting grid connections rose 60% in a year to 3,000 GW, four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids last year.

The agency identifies integrating variable sources as a forthcoming challenge as reliance on solar and wind grows. It expects variable energy sources to exceed 50% of the electricity mix in 17 countries by 2031. It also said technical curtailment of wind and solar output nearly doubled in both 2024 and 2025. The agency says faster auctions, investment in grids, expanded battery storage and permitting reforms could lift capacity growth by 20% over the forecast period under an accelerated scenario. Under that scenario, the world could reach its target of tripling renewable capacity in 2031. Under the baseline pathway, renewables' share of global electricity generation rises from 33% in 2025 to 43% in 2031.