Washington Weighs Three Paths on Iran Amid Military Preparations Without New Orders
Key Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump and his senior national security advisers discussed Iran on Thursday in their first meeting on the issue since the election, Axios reported, citing U.S. officials. The report said the president was weighing three paths: launching new strikes, maintaining economic pressure on Tehran, or reaching a deal involving major Iranian concessions. While U.S. Central Command was completing preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations, the report said it had received no new orders from Washington. That indicates military preparations are underway alongside a review of political options, without signaling a decision to resume strikes. The discussion comes as calculations about escalation intersect with efforts to ease tensions and ensure the security of shipping in the region.
The military option includes the possibility of renewed major combat operations inside Iran, according to Axios's report on Central Command's preparations. But the report explicitly said the command had received no new orders from Washington, placing the preparations in the realm of possibility rather than an operational decision. The other two paths involve continuing to squeeze Iran's government economically or reaching a deal involving major Iranian concessions. The report gave no details on the nature of those concessions or the terms of any potential agreement. The three options therefore remain under discussion as the military command continues preparations for a possible resumption of fighting.
The military deployment indicators also include the arrival of a third U.S. aircraft carrier group in the Middle East, which the report said could point to plans for renewed strikes. But the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its group will spend a few days in Singapore starting Friday, according to a U.S. official cited by Axios. The official said the group would not enter Central Command's area of responsibility before mid-November. That timeline places the group's possible arrival in the context of later movements, rather than an immediate reinforcement of forces within the command's area. The report linked the arrival of a third group to the possibility of renewed strikes, without presenting it as evidence that a decision had been made.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held calls on Thursday with regional counterparts, including Turkey and several Gulf leaders, the Associated Press reported. Araghchi spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan about efforts to improve regional security and stability. He also discussed coordinating efforts to ease tensions with Qatar's foreign minister, while the Qatari side reaffirmed its support for efforts to ensure freedom of maritime navigation. The agency said the safety of passage through the Strait of Hormuz was a major focus of Araghchi's talks with Oman's foreign minister. It added that Araghchi also discussed de-escalation efforts with the foreign ministers of Kuwait and Turkey, in a diplomatic push coinciding with Washington's assessment of its options on Iran.
The safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz features in these contacts: the talks with Oman were directly linked to the security of shipping lanes, while discussions with Qatar addressed easing tensions and freedom of maritime navigation. In the context of political efforts, the Associated Press cited regional officials as saying mediators were trying to push for a framework under which Iran would stop attacking ships in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. The report did not say the parties had reached an agreement, but described efforts to make progress toward a negotiating framework. U.S. allies in the Middle East also warned that renewed strikes could destabilize the region. These concerns put shipping-lane security and regional stability among the considerations alongside military and economic options.
The Associated Press had reported that a limited U.S. strike targeted Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the midterm elections, raising questions about what comes next. In remarks reported by the agency, U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about the possibility of a negotiated settlement, saying he and Trump "feel reasonably optimistic about the chances of reaching a negotiated settlement." Regional officials also said the election results had given mediators some optimism about finding a path to resolve the conflict. By contrast, the agency reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pressed to resume strikes during a call with Trump over the weekend, but the president did not commit to military action. These positions show a divide between calls to resume strikes and signs of optimism about a possible settlement, with no announced decision on Washington's course.
Oil prices reflected some market expectations after the election: Brent crude fell below $95 a barrel on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in two months, according to the Associated Press. The agency described the move as a sign that markets were not expecting major strikes. That does not settle the possibility of escalation, as the U.S. discussion of options continued while military preparations remained in place without new orders from Washington. Looking ahead, China said it plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the envoy would focus on easing tensions and promoting regional stability, in a diplomatic effort coinciding with the Roosevelt group's expected entry into Central Command's area of responsibility no earlier than the middle of the month.