JPMorgan estimates oil surplus at 1.4 million barrels a day in October

Key Facts

JPMorgan estimated that the global oil market returned to surplus in September 2026, with the surplus widening in October in a shift reflecting an imbalance between supply and demand. Reuters reported on November 4 that the surplus reached 1.1 million barrels a day in September and rose to 1.4 million barrels a day in October. The October estimate was close to the average surplus recorded in 2025, at 1.3 million barrels a day. The figures show that the estimated October surplus slightly exceeded the previous year’s average. By contrast, the International Energy Agency offered a different outlook in its October report, forecasting that the market would remain in deficit through the end of the year.

Global crude oil imports rose to 44.9 million barrels a day in October 2026, according to JPMorgan estimates cited by Reuters. That was 1.3 million barrels a day above the import level in October 2025. The comparison puts import volumes in an annual context, while the surplus estimate measures the gap between market supply and demand. The figures in the estimate show imports rising as the surplus widened between September and October. The estimates did not provide a separate figure for how much imports contributed to the surplus.

JPMorgan estimated that global oil demand had fallen by 3.3 million barrels a day since the start of the conflict, as higher fuel prices and supply disruptions helped curb consumption. The decline covers the period from the start of the conflict through November 2026, according to Reuters. The bank’s estimate means weaker consumption coincided with the rise in imports recorded in October and the widening of the estimated surplus that month. The estimate also linked the demand decline to higher fuel costs and supply disruptions, without breaking out the effect of each factor. JPMorgan said global demand had "fallen by an estimated 3.3 million barrels a day since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices and supply disruptions curbed consumption."

On the supply side, Middle Eastern oil exports recovered to about 20.7 million barrels a day in November 2026, compared with a trough of 9.8 million barrels a day in March. JPMorgan said exports had recovered but remained below prewar levels. The trend points to an increase in exports from their lows during the year, while a gap with prewar levels persisted. These figures accompany the bank’s estimate of a demand decline since the start of the conflict, while the source did not provide a figure for exports before the war. Exports were estimated at about 20.7 million barrels a day in November, after reaching 9.8 million in March.

JPMorgan’s surplus estimate differed from the International Energy Agency’s forecast in its October report that the market would remain in deficit through the end of 2026. The agency said market balances were "expected to remain in deficit through the end of the year, despite lower demand," and projected a surplus in 2027 if the underlying conditions underpinning its forecasts continued. The agency also forecast that global oil demand would fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026 and by 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter. On supply, it estimated that global supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day in September 2026 from August, reaching 102.3 million barrels a day, led by Gulf producers. Its next monthly report is due on November 13, 2026.