Genius Sports raises 2026 revenue forecast to $1.035 billion after strong results
Key Facts
On November 5, Genius Sports raised its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to a range of $1.015 billion to $1.035 billion and increased its forecast for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to between $287 million and $297 million. The change followed third-quarter results that exceeded the company’s guidance, according to its earnings statement. Previous forecasts called for revenue of between $1.005 billion and $1.025 billion and adjusted earnings of between $285 million and $295 million. The lower end of each range therefore rose by $10 million, as did the upper end. The forecast update reflects quarterly performance stronger than the levels the company had set for the quarter, alongside revenue growth and improved earnings and cash-flow metrics.
The group reported third-quarter revenue of $269.864 million, up 62.3% year over year, compared with guidance of $260 million. Revenue also exceeded analysts’ estimate of $260.94 million, according to Investing.com data. By contrast, the company reported a loss of $0.06 per share, while analysts had estimated earnings of $0.02 per share. The results therefore combined revenue above expectations with earnings per share below them. This divergence puts revenue ahead of market estimates, while the per-share result remained below analysts’ expectations.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reached $87.1 million for the quarter, up 156% from $34 million in the corresponding period of 2025. The figure exceeded the company’s guidance of $85 million, while the group’s margin was about 32%. The company presents this adjusted earnings measure as a non-GAAP financial measure. Its growth provides a clear year-over-year comparison, while the beat on guidance shows that the actual result exceeded the level management had set for the quarter. Together with revenue above guidance, this result is linked to the company’s decision to raise its annual forecast ranges.
The group’s free cash flow was $54 million in the third quarter, with a free cash flow conversion rate of 61%. Unlevered free cash flow was $69 million, with a conversion rate of 80%, according to the company’s results. These figures make cash flows among the quarter’s key metrics, alongside revenue growth and adjusted earnings. The company also said it expects a cash balance of about $260 million at the end of 2026. That expected balance is tied to free cash flow of more than $100 million in the second half of the year, according to the company’s estimate.
By segment, betting revenue rose 33% year over year to $153 million. The company attributed the growth to expanding business with existing customers, price increases when contracts were renewed and expanding the services provided to them. Media revenue increased 126% to $116.9 million, driven mainly by the acquisition of Legend. The sources of growth differed between the two segments: expansion, renewals and additional services in betting, and the acquisition’s contribution in media. The company said Legend adds commercial value and that it sees benefits from combined scale, according to its earnings statement.
Looking ahead, the chief financial officer said the company looks forward to sharing more details about its 2027 forecast in the next quarter. The expected update comes after Genius Sports raised its revenue and adjusted earnings ranges for the current year. The company also expects free cash flow to exceed $100 million in the second half of 2026, according to its statement. This is paired with an expected cash balance of about $260 million at year-end. These figures remain the company’s estimates for the period ahead, while the chief financial officer identified the next quarter as the time for additional details on the 2027 forecast.