Musk expects SpaceX government revenue to fall below 10% this quarter and 5% within a year
Key Facts
Elon Musk said government revenue would account for less than 10% of SpaceX’s total revenue in the current quarter and fall below 5% within a year, according to Investing.com, which reported the comments on November 6, 2026. The statement points to an expected decline in the relative weight of government contracts as the company expands its sources of income. The outlet reported that government revenue accounted for 16.6% in the previous quarter, putting the current forecast clearly below the share recorded then. Musk’s original post on X could not be accessed. The forecast follows results showing a sharp increase in revenue and a return to net income in the third quarter.
SpaceX recorded revenue of $14.575 billion in the third quarter of 2026, compared with $5.576 billion in the same period a year earlier, while net income was $4.404 billion, following a net loss of $1.054 billion. Revenue rose by $8.999 billion year over year, according to the company’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The largest increase came from the SI segment, which added $6.747 billion in revenue, followed by the Connectivity segment, up $2.151 billion. The Space segment contributed an increase of $101 million. The filing does not break out the government’s share of third-quarter revenue, so it does not by itself determine the size of any change in that share.
SI segment revenue was about $7.560 billion in the third quarter, compared with $813 million a year earlier. SpaceX attributed the segment’s growth to the activation of new cloud infrastructure agreements and $608 million in revenue from Cursor, which it acquired in mid-August 2026, as well as an increase in Grok and X subscriptions. These items show the segment’s expanding activity, which accounted for the largest portion of the company’s year-over-year revenue increase. SI’s growth puts the expansion of computing and related services at the center of the shift in the revenue mix. But it does not determine how much these businesses may represent of total revenue in coming periods.
In its connectivity business, the number of Starlink consumer subscribers rose to 13.6 million on September 30, 2026, compared with 7.2 million on the same date in 2025. SpaceX said consumer subscriber growth was 88.9% year over year, while average revenue per user fell 16.9%. The company attributed consumer revenue growth to these two factors, reflecting an expanding customer base alongside lower average revenue per user. Growth in business and government operations, it said, came mainly from activating additional aircraft. Connectivity growth drivers therefore include consumer demand and activity among corporate and government customers, while the filing does not detail the government’s share of total quarterly revenue.
Capital expenditure totaled $19.593 billion in the third quarter of 2026, including $16.444 billion for the SI segment, according to SpaceX’s filing. The spending came as the company’s revenue expanded, particularly SI revenue, which led the annual increase. The Associated Press said the company expected capital expenditure to rise to between $35 billion and $40 billion in the fourth quarter. SpaceX shares rose 7.5% in after-hours trading following the results, the news agency reported. The Associated Press quoted an analyst as saying Starlink appeared to be accelerating its growth.
The company provides an earlier baseline for comparison with the new forecast, saying in its filing that about one-fifth of 2025 revenue was attributed to U.S. federal government agencies. In its second-quarter 2026 results, SpaceX announced that it had won multiple-year U.S. government contracts for the Starshield program worth more than $6 billion. The disclosed contract value represents multi-year commitments and is not equivalent to revenue recognized in any particular quarter. After the midterm elections, the Associated Press reported that Democrats sought to scrutinize Musk’s companies and his work at the Department of Government Efficiency. The agency also said Democratic members of the House had called for an investigation into SpaceX contracts and Musk’s work at the department, while the company warned in its public offering filing that a change in control of Congress could adversely affect its growth and competitive position.