Cummins Cuts 2026 Revenue Growth Forecast to 10% Despite Record Quarterly EBITDA
Key Facts
On November 5, Cummins forecast revenue growth of about 10% for 2026, compared with its previous guidance range of 10% to 13%, while keeping its EBITDA margin forecast at about 18.2%, within its previous range of 18% to 18.5%. CEO Jennifer Rumsey said the company adjusted its annual revenue and profitability outlook mainly because of continued weakness in North American pickup truck demand. She added that the weakness is likely to persist through year-end. The outlook revision came despite the company reporting record third-quarter results, including EBITDA of $1.8 billion. The comparison shows that the company lowered its revenue growth estimate while keeping its annual margin range close to its previous level.
Cummins' third-quarter 2026 revenue was about $9.4 billion, up 13% from the same period in 2025. EBITDA hit a record $1.8 billion, equivalent to 18.9% of sales. In the third quarter of the previous year, EBITDA was about $1.2 billion, or 14.3% of sales. Both the reported amount and the margin therefore increased from the year-earlier period, according to the company's results. These strong operating figures came alongside a lower ceiling for its annual revenue growth forecast.
By region, Cummins' North American sales grew 15% in the third quarter, while international revenue rose 11%, led by growth in China. In the Power Systems segment, sales increased 15% to $2.3 billion, as demand for power generation grew, particularly in data center applications. The company said global demand for power generation and North American heavy-duty trucks remained strong. This highlights a divergence between activities supporting sales and weaker pickup truck demand, which Rumsey cited in explaining the outlook revision. The segment and regional performance form part of the backdrop to the company's third-quarter results.
Cummins had raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance range in August to 10%–13%, from its previous range of 8%–11%. That followed second-quarter revenue of $9.5 billion, up 9% year over year, and net income of $932 million, compared with $890 million a year earlier. Rumsey said at the time that record second-quarter results reflected strong demand for backup power at data centers and improving North American truck markets. In July, the company approved a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend, from $2.00 to $2.20 per share. It also plans capital expenditures of between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion in 2026, with about 60% directed to North America.
Cummins returned $661 million to shareholders in the third quarter through cash dividends and share repurchases. The company said it is committed to its goal of returning 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. Cummins shares closed at $471.84 on November 4, 2026. The company forecast that fourth-quarter revenue would exceed third-quarter levels and set a new record. It pointed to continued strength in demand for power generation and North American heavy-duty trucks.
The company's conference call to discuss third-quarter results was scheduled for November 5, 2026, from 10:00 to 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The call followed the company's release of its results and revised 2026 outlook. In that outlook, Cummins cut its revenue growth estimate to about 10% from a previous range of 10% to 13%. It kept its EBITDA margin forecast at about 18.2%, within the previous range of 18% to 18.5%. It also said fourth-quarter revenue was likely to rise from the third quarter and set a new record.