China’s Emissions Fall 3.1% in Q3, Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2022
Key Facts
China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the biggest quarterly decline since the COVID lockdowns in 2022, according to an analysis published by Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The decline puts developments in China’s energy use and economic activity in focus, as fossil fuel use fell during the period. The analysis estimated that Chinese emissions fell 0.5% from the start of the year through the end of the third quarter. This followed lower coal and oil use in the quarter, alongside increased electricity generation from low-carbon sources. Separate official data showed a decline in China’s activity indicators in October.
According to Carbon Brief’s analysis, coal use fell 3% year on year in the third quarter, while oil use declined 4%. Coal-fired electricity generation also fell 3.3%, while combined electricity generation from solar, wind and nuclear power rose by 110 terawatt-hours year on year. The figures show coal dependence declining as electricity generation from other sources expanded. In transport, oil consumption fell 9% compared with the same period a year earlier. Electric vehicles accounted for 67% of passenger car sales in September, the analysis said.
On economic activity, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 49.3% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The index was 50.1% in September, after reaching 49.8% in August. The production index also fell to 49.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the new orders index declined to 49.4%, down 1.1 percentage points. The bureau said the October manufacturing index “fell 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.” The readings point to weaker manufacturing indicators than in September, while the bureau’s statement did not link them to energy supplies.
The decline extended to non-manufacturing indicators, with the non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.7% in October, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The construction activity index fell to 48.0%, while the services activity index stood at 50.0%. The composite output index was 49.7%, down one percentage point from September. The data offer a broader picture of slowing monthly indicators alongside the decline in the manufacturing index. The National Bureau of Statistics said the non-manufacturing activity index “fell 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.”
Myllyvirta said oil consumption could rebound if prices fall, adding that “there is a possibility of some kind of rebound in oil consumption when prices fall, or if they fall.” But he said China’s oil consumption had probably peaked before the supply shock. Greenpeace East Asia said the continued decline in coal-fired power generation was linked to renewable energy development, describing the drop in coal use as “a key factor in the continued development of renewable energy.” The organization called for wider use of renewable energy and the development of energy storage. The analysis said sustained emissions declines would depend on balancing energy demand growth with clean energy growth, and removing barriers to connecting wind and solar power to the grid.
The upcoming releases include the November consumer price index report, scheduled for publication on November 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s calendar. The release follows the publication of October purchasing managers’ index data on November 3. The price report will provide a subsequent reading on the trajectory of China’s economic indicators this month. The third-quarter emissions estimate also remains tied to whether clean energy growth continues to outpace growth in overall energy demand. Carbon Brief’s analysis says clean electricity generation is on track to grow faster than total energy demand this year.