Gulf Crude Exports Recover Faster Than Slower Refined-Product Shipments
Key Facts
The International Energy Agency said crude exports from Gulf producers jumped by 4.4 million barrels per day in September 2026, reaching 13.9 million barrels per day and exceeding 75% of pre-war levels. The recovery puts crude flows well above refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas shipments from the region. The agency said those shipments recovered more slowly and remained below half of pre-war levels. The divergence shows that the return of crude supplies has not been accompanied by a similar recovery in refined products. The gap may remain significant for the fuel market as the agency warns of pressure on refining profitability.
The agency said Gulf crude exports, led by Saudi Arabia, rose by 4.4 million barrels per day during September to 13.9 million. It described the level as exceeding 75% of pre-war levels, without giving a more precise figure for that percentage in the information available. By contrast, refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas shipments did not recover at the same pace as crude, remaining below half of pre-war levels. This means the path of crude flows to markets differs from that of refined products and liquefied gas. The agency’s data do not provide a figure for refined-product shipment volumes or the size of their increase.
Earlier in the week, the Associated Press reported on November 2 that oil prices had fallen sharply as signs emerged that diplomatic efforts in the Iran war were making progress. The news agency linked the price move to those signs, saying that “oil prices fell sharply Monday as signs emerged that renewed diplomatic efforts in the Iran war were making progress.” The move provides market context for developments in the region, but does not establish their effect on fuel-oil refining margins in Asia. The Associated Press report does not include a figure for the price move or a comparison between fuel grades. Nor does it by itself establish that diplomatic progress changed oil-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
On November 3, the Associated Press said Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear program, on condition that the United States lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and commit to a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. The news agency said the offer included “reopening the strait and resuming talks on its nuclear program” if Washington met those conditions. The offer puts navigation and sanctions within the negotiating track under discussion between the two countries. The available information does not say the conditions were accepted or that the strait was reopened. It also gives no date for resuming talks or implementing any part of the offer.
The International Energy Agency warned that any further decline in refining profitability could prompt marginal refineries in Asia and Europe to cut operating rates. It said the cuts could tighten the market further before year-end, linking weaker profitability with the possibility of reduced activity at some refineries. The warning covers refineries in both regions and is not limited to Asia. The agency framed this as a possibility contingent on a further deterioration in profitability, not as an announced decision to cut operating rates. The timing gives year-end added importance in assessing refineries’ ability to keep operating amid profit pressure.
The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release its November Oil Market Report on 13 November 2026. The report date offers a near-term update on the market outlook, according to the agency’s event page. It follows October report data on the recovery in Gulf crude exports and the slower return of refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas shipments. The forthcoming report may provide a more recent reading of these developments, but the available information does not specify its content or whether it will change market forecasts. The release date remains the next specified development in the available data.