CommoditiesMedium•5 November 2026•
1 min read
Kpler Forecasts 2.4 Million BPD Drop in Global Refined Fuel Demand for 2026
Key Facts
1Kpler expects the US-Iran conflict to reduce global demand for refined petroleum products by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026.
2The decline is projected to be concentrated in Q2 and Q3 2026, with diesel and gasoil seeing the largest reductions.
Kpler expects the US-Iran conflict to reduce global demand for refined petroleum products by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. REMO TV reported that the forecast stems from supply disruptions, airspace closures, and shipping interruptions in key Gulf hubs, which are driving up fuel prices and suppressing consumption.
The decline is projected to be concentrated in the second and third quarters of 2026, with diesel and gasoil expected to see the largest reductions. This outlook follows data from November 4, 2026, showing that US gasoline stocks fell by 0.222 million barrels and crude oil inventories decreased by 0.865 million barrels, according to the EIA weekly petroleum report.