EL7.AI
Central BanksMedium•5 November 2026•
1 min read

Fed December Rate-Hike Odds Drop to 67% Following U.S. Midterms

Key Facts

1The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December fell to 67% from over 80% following the midterm elections.
2The odds of a rate hold rose to 33%, marking the highest level for a hold since mid-September.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December fell to 67% from over 80% following the midterm elections. Bloomberg reported that the odds of a rate hold rose to 33%, marking the highest level for a pause since mid-September.

The shift in investor expectations follows the Democrat sweep in the elections held on November 3, 2026. This change in the macro outlook coincides with recent labor market data from November 5, 2026, which showed initial jobless claims falling to 189,000, outperforming the forecast of 196,000.

Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak soon, including Logan and Williams on November 6, 2026, followed by a speech from Waller on November 10, 2026, which may provide further clarity on the monetary policy path.