US Job Forecast Points to 65,000 Added in October, Unemployment at 4.2%
Key Facts
Markets are awaiting the US government’s October jobs report, with forecasts for 65,000 jobs to be added and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, according to estimates cited by the Associated Press. These figures are estimates for the government report, which provides a broader measure of the labor market; no verified reading for the October private-sector employment report is available here. The forecast compares with 29,000 jobs added in September, setting up the expected job growth as a potential improvement on the previous month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report on November 6 at 08:30 a.m. The eagerly awaited government reading will provide a fresh gauge of the pace of hiring and unemployment in the United States.
September job openings data offer an additional picture of labor demand ahead of the October figures. Vacancies in the United States rose to 7.5 million from a revised 7.19 million in August, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The Associated Press said September’s level was the highest since May. The increase in vacancies points to more jobs available than in the previous month, while forecasts for government payrolls remain a separate measure from the openings survey. These figures refer to September and August and do not represent October hiring.
In September, layoffs also fell to 1.64 million, the lowest level since March 2025, while the number of workers who quit their jobs rose to 3.37 million, the highest in about 18 months, according to the Associated Press. The data combine fewer layoffs with more resignations, at a time when hiring has remained slow for about three years. The agency described layoffs as historically low, in a labor market marked by weak turnover and greater difficulty for job seekers. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said, "The gradual increase in hiring despite all the current headwinds, from higher diesel and gasoline prices to persistent inflation problems, is an encouraging sign." Her comment reflects the September job openings reading, not the expected October employment data.
The October Employment Situation report is scheduled for release on November 6 at 08:30 a.m., according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ published schedule. Forecasts cited by the Associated Press point to 65,000 jobs added, compared with 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. The official data will put October employment and unemployment figures before markets when they are released. The vacancy, layoff and resignation data cited here are for September and provide context ahead of the report.