Brent Closes at $103.60, Its Lowest Settlement Since October 7, Before November 4 Rebound
Key Facts
Brent futures settled the November 3 session down $1.17, or 1%, at $103.60 a barrel, their lowest close since October 7, according to Reuters. The decline came as traders weighed talks to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran against concerns that recent attacks in both conflicts could further disrupt supplies. Market moves remained tied to developments in negotiations and geopolitical risks surrounding oil flows. In trading on November 4 at 01:57 Eastern Time, the January Brent contract rose 0.6% to $104.20 a barrel, according to Investing.com. The early gain reflects a move after the previous session’s close, not a November 4 settlement.
In the same session, West Texas Intermediate fell 37 cents to $96.09 a barrel, its lowest close since October 14, according to Reuters. EL7 data showed crude closed at $96.09 on November 3, after $96.46 on November 2. Brent had closed at $104.77 on November 2 before falling to $103.60 in the following session. In early trading on November 4, the West Texas Intermediate contract rose 0.5% to $96.59 a barrel. Both crude benchmarks therefore fell at the November 3 close, then rebounded in prices published the following morning.
Negotiation news was one side of the equation markets were watching. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran and the United States “remain far from an agreement to end the war.” Qatar, meanwhile, stepped up mediation efforts to avoid an escalation after the U.S. midterm elections. Investing.com coverage on November 4 said Democrats had won majorities in both the House and Senate, and that investors were watching whether Washington would continue military action against Iran or seek a diplomatic solution. These developments place the negotiations within the broader political landscape without determining their course or outcome.
Supply risks, by contrast, remained part of the market’s price assessment. Reuters reported that the market weighed talks to end the two wars against concerns that recent attacks in both conflicts could cause further supply disruptions. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said “the oil market remains highly sensitive to every news headline coming out of the Middle East.” The description reflects prices’ sensitivity to shifts in political and security signals in the region. Adnoc Chief Executive Sultan Al Jaber also said the world had drawn down nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories since the war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
On U.S. data, Investing.com reported, citing American Petroleum Institute data, that crude inventories fell 5.267 million barrels in the week ended October 30, against analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, rose 1.427 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell 270,000 barrels. The figures offer a mixed picture of crude and refined-product inventories during the week, as the market was also tracking negotiations and supply risks. The Energy Information Administration’s schedule set the release of the alternative report for the week ended November 6 for November 12 at 12 noon Eastern Time, because of the Veterans Day holiday. The schedule does not include a report release on November 4.
Conflict developments and mediation efforts remain among the factors the market is watching in the coming days. Reuters said Russia would hold trilateral peace talks with Ukraine and the United States in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. On price forecasts, the Energy Information Administration expects the spot price of Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its estimate the previous month. The agency said oil production shut in because of disruptions averaged 4.8 million barrels a day in September, compared with 5.8 million in August and a peak of 10.9 million in May. The agency is scheduled to release its next short-term energy outlook on November 10, 2026.