Ivanhoe Cuts 2027 Copper Production Forecast to 300,000–350,000 Tonnes
Key Facts
Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2027 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula complex to 300,000–350,000 tonnes, compared with previous guidance of 380,000–420,000 tonnes, according to its third-quarter results disclosure issued on 3 November 2026. At the same time, the company raised its expected cash cost range to $2.50–$3.00 per pound, from $2.10–$2.50. The company linked the revision to persistently high diesel prices, lower ore grades and lower expected production in 2027. The lower production forecast and higher costs mean the company expects slower production growth during the year, with a higher burden per pound of copper. The announcement follows 2027 production guidance of 500,000–540,000 tonnes when it was announced in December 2025, before subsequent cuts.
Ivanhoe said delays in starting stoping on the eastern side of Kakula are contributing to a slower production ramp-up. The start of this mining had been targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027, then was postponed to late in the first quarter of 2028. The company also said its estimate of Kakula’s peak mining rate had been reduced, limiting the expected pace of recovery. This leaves the mine under operational pressure during a period when previous forecasts had anticipated higher production. The trajectory follows the complex’s production of 388,841 tonnes of copper in 2025, within that year’s guidance of 370,000–420,000 tonnes.
Third-quarter 2026 data showed a decline in the grade of ore processed despite an increase in the volume handled by the processing facilities. The facilities processed 3.493 million tonnes at a copper grade of 2.22%, compared with 3.456 million tonnes and a grade of 2.47% in the third quarter of 2025. The complex produced 76,401 tonnes of saleable copper in the third quarter of 2026. Average cash costs were also $3.00 per pound for the quarter, compared with $2.80 per pound in the first nine months of the year. The company said full-year costs remain within its 2026 guidance of $2.60–$3.00 per pound, while its annual production guidance remained at 290,000–310,000 tonnes, with production trending toward the lower end of the range.
Energy costs are among the pressures facing operations, reaching $0.69 per pound in the third quarter of 2026, compared with $0.57 in the second quarter and $0.35 in the third quarter of 2025. Energy accounted for 23.0% of total cash costs in the third quarter, up from 13.4% a year earlier. The company said the on-site hybrid solar power plant had been completed and provides 60 megawatts of continuous baseload power. Ivanhoe expects the facility to reduce energy costs by $0.10–$0.20 per pound as water pumping shifts away from diesel generators. Low-sulphur diesel contracts at the Port of New York settled at $4.5306 per gallon on 3 November, compared with $4.4216 the previous day, according to EL7 data.
The company plans to begin stripping the first two pre-production pits at Kamoa in the first quarter of 2027, targeting first ore from them in the third quarter of the same year. It also said an updated life-of-mine plan for the complex is expected to be published in March 2027, based on updated geological, hydrological and geotechnical models, along with drilling and engineering studies. On capacity, Ivanhoe lowered its estimate of steady-state capacity for phases 1, 2 and 3, ahead of phase 4, to 400,000–450,000 tonnes of copper. The company expects the combined capacity of these phases to come online from mid-2027, with lower ore grades than previously guided. The fourth expansion is aimed at lifting capacity to about 500,000 tonnes annually from 2028, with detailed engineering design due to begin in the first quarter of 2027.
The company had announced that its investor call to discuss third-quarter results would be held on 4 November 2026 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The call follows the release of results on 3 November, while the company has placed the updated mine plan in March 2027 among the project’s upcoming milestones. These dates link the start of stripping the two pits in the first quarter with targeted ore extraction in the third quarter of the same year. The start of mining in eastern Kakula remains scheduled for late in the first quarter of 2028 under the updated timetable. Ivanhoe is targeting copper production of about 500,000 tonnes annually after the fourth expansion, starting in 2028.