Gold Closes at $4,019.725, Surpassing $4,000 on Nov. 4
Key Facts
Spot gold closed at $4,019.725 an ounce on Nov. 4, 2026, surpassing $4,000, according to EL7 data. In early Wednesday trading, spot gold had risen 0.5% to $3,947.49 an ounce at 0415 GMT, while U.S. December futures climbed 0.5% to $3,958. Chris Weston of Pepperstone attributed the support to a weaker dollar and a sharp drop in nominal and real U.S. Treasury yields. He said, "A weaker dollar and a sharp drop in nominal and real U.S. Treasury yields are providing clear support for gold"; those factors accompanied the price's rise above the psychological $4,000 level.
U.S. market moves coincided with early Democratic gains in the midterm elections; U.S. stock futures fell, Treasury bonds rose and the dollar weakened on Wednesday. Weston said demand for protection from the Trump administration, which could become more volatile and confrontational, offered an attractive backdrop for gold buyers. He said, "Demand for protection from a Trump administration that could become more volatile and confrontational appears to provide a compelling backdrop for gold buyers." Technically, Matt Simpson of StoneX described $4,000 as clear resistance. He said a break of this range in either direction could determine the metal's next significant move, making the close above that level on Nov. 4 a focus for the market.
World Gold Council data show that central banks and official institutions added a net 321 tonnes to their reserves in the third quarter of 2026, up 42% year over year. That was the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024. Purchases by these entities from the start of the year through the end of the third quarter rose to 675 tonnes, up 6% from the same period a year earlier. The council said portfolio diversification and risk management remained the main drivers of official gold demand. Those purchases provide a backdrop for institutional demand alongside daily price moves.
Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds returned to inflows in the third quarter, reversing the second quarter's trend, adding 211 tonnes. Their holdings rose to a record 4,256 tonnes. By contrast, demand for gold bars and coins fell 19% year over year to 268 tonnes in the same quarter. The World Gold Council linked the decline in retail demand to buyers staying on the sidelines amid the absence of a clear direction in gold prices. Total gold demand, including over-the-counter trading, reached 1,369 tonnes, down 1% year over year, during a period when the quarterly average price was $4,262 an ounce.
The World Gold Council said strong fund inflows in the third quarter came despite rising bond yields, a stronger dollar and a decline in the geopolitical risk index. The council said financial concerns and uncertainty partly offset the cost of holding gold. It added that the midterm elections were an additional source of uncertainty, and that an expected increase in Democratic control could support gold, while the policy implications and market reaction remained uncertain. For investment demand in 2026, the council lowered its estimate for the annual increase compared with 2025 to about 200 tonnes, from its previous forecast of 400 tonnes. This places its annual outlook in the context of mixed demand, with purchases by official institutions and funds on one side and weaker appetite for bars and coins on the other.
The fourth-quarter investment outlook, according to the World Gold Council, hinges on opposing forces: interest rates, yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on demand, while financial concerns, inflation risks, geopolitical tensions and market pressures could support it. Markets are watching U.S. data on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' calendar over the next two days. The preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs report is due Nov. 5 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The October employment situation report follows on Nov. 6 at the same time. Nonfarm payroll growth was 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, according to bureau data.