Bagdad Expansion Investment Decision Still Expected in Fourth Quarter of 2026
Key Facts
Freeport-McMoRan had not announced approval of the Bagdad mine expansion in Arizona by the time it reported third-quarter results, saying an investment decision was still expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. That leaves the project awaiting a decision, rather than in an announced construction phase. The company said on October 2 that it was completing work toward an investment decision by year-end on doubling the mine’s capacity. In its results update, it said the decision to proceed with the expansion and its timing would take copper-market conditions and other factors into account. The timing of the final decision and details on whether to proceed therefore remain the project’s main points to watch.
The company estimates the expansion would add 200–250 million pounds of copper and 10–12 million pounds of molybdenum annually. These figures represent the project’s expected incremental output, not the mine’s total production after expansion. The increase could make Bagdad the second-largest copper mine in the United States, according to the company’s presentation. It also says the mine’s reserves support doubling capacity, with a reserve life of more than 80 years. The company describes Bagdad as a wholly owned project with a decades-long operating history, placing the expansion among its existing assets.
Freeport estimates the expansion’s capital investment at about $4.5 billion, excluding $0.2 billion of early works completed through the end of the third quarter of 2026. The company describes the project as low in capital intensity and says its economics are supported by an incentive copper price of about $4 per pound. It also expects increased scale and upgrades to reduce unit costs. These remain estimates for a project for which an investment decision has not yet been announced. If approved, the company estimates construction would take 3 to 4 years after the decision to proceed.
The expansion plans come as Bagdad produced 29 million pounds of copper in the third quarter of 2026, down from 37 million pounds in the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, the average realized copper price across the company’s U.S. operations rose to $6.55 per pound in the third quarter, from $4.92 a year earlier. A Reuters report published on October 28 said average London Metal Exchange copper prices rose 43% year over year during the quarter, while Freeport’s average realized price increased about 40% to $6.54 per pound. These comparisons provide the price and production context in company disclosures and market reports for the period, but do not by themselves determine when Bagdad’s investment decision will be made.
FCX shares closed at $61.77 on November 3, after closing at $62.97 on November 2, according to available EL7 data. The HGUSD copper instrument closed at 6.402 on November 3, compared with 6.5675 the previous day. These are closing prices for the sessions cited and do not establish the stock’s movement in early trading on November 4. The next step remains tied to the investment decision the company said was expected in the fourth quarter, and to how copper-market conditions and other factors are weighed in deciding whether and when to proceed.