European Gas Inventories at Lowest Since 2013 as Hormuz Supplies Disrupted
Key Facts
The European Union entered the 2026-2027 heating season with gas inventories at their lowest levels since 2013, according to the International Energy Agency. That narrows the safety margin as liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain halted, while Europe needs supplies to meet seasonal peak demand. The agency said lower inventories increase the continent’s reliance on global LNG shipments. That reliance puts Europe in fiercer competition for available cargoes with other buyers. The risks are concentrated in a coincidence of cold weather and continued supply disruption through the vital corridor.
The agency said LNG flows through Hormuz had effectively stopped, reducing shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic meters between March and October 2026. The loss is affecting the market as the agency expects global LNG supplies to decline this year. Its forecast calls for global supplies to fall 3%, or about 20 billion cubic meters, in 2026. A tighter market means fewer flexible cargoes are available to buyers. The agency says this could intensify competition for them in the coming months, particularly when demand rises.
Prices reflect tight supply in the European market: the average spot price for the TTF contract rose about 70% year on year to nearly $20 per million British thermal units between March and October 2026, according to the agency. The agency linked lower inventories to the prospect of mounting competition for limited flexible LNG cargoes. It said that could put upward pressure on spot prices in the coming months. The market is more sensitive to that prospect as demand rises, it warned. The estimate refers to the average over March to October, not a real-time price.
Inventory levels vary across EU countries. Germany’s gas inventories stood at 61.05% on Nov. 2, compared with an EU average of 74.56%, according to data cited by Reuters on Nov. 3. Analysts and industry forecasters had projected in a report dated Oct. 12 that European inventories would reach 75-78% by Nov. 1, about 10 percentage points below the five-year average. These figures show storage levels at the start of the heating season, while Germany’s figure puts the bloc’s largest economy below the EU average. The agency also forecast that European gas demand would fall 3% in 2026, as high prices curb industrial consumption and gas burning in the power sector declines. The expected drop in demand would reduce overall consumption, but would not eliminate exposure to cold spells or supply disruptions.
In one agency simulation, EU inventories could fall below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027 if colder-than-average weather persists and LNG flows through Hormuz are disrupted. The scenario makes the end of the heating season a critical point for reserve levels, with Europe relying on global shipments to cover peak demand. The agency said cold weather or supply disruptions could increase the region’s exposure to risk. It also warned that lower inventories could intensify competition for flexible cargoes and push spot prices higher. The simulation’s outcome remains conditional on the continuation of the two factors it identified: colder weather and disrupted flows.
Low inventories have coincided with security incidents in the strait. On Oct. 30, Oman said it had evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker that came under attack and caught fire, according to the Associated Press. The agency also reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed tankers had struck naval mines, but said it could not verify those claims. This differs from describing the incidents as missile attacks on tankers, a characterization the agency also said it could not verify. The incident announced by Oman adds immediate context to security risks around the corridor. The effect of any subsequent developments in shipping traffic would depend on the market’s ability to provide LNG supplies for the rest of the heating season.