Democrats Flip North Carolina Seat as Oil Closes at $103.60
Key Facts
Democrats flipped a Senate seat in North Carolina and won races in Georgia and New Hampshire in the November 3 elections, according to the Associated Press, in early results that kept the battle for control of Congress open. In Virginia, Democratic Senator Mark Warner won another term, which did not give the party a new seat. The agency said Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate and 3 in the House to take the majority. The results came in an election in which the cost of living and views on the country's direction were top voter concerns. The agency's voter survey found that about half said the cost of living was decisive in their vote for Congress, ahead of immigration enforcement, the war with Iran and AI data centers.
More than 59 million voters cast ballots early, according to an Associated Press analysis, surpassing early voting in the 2022 midterm elections. The agency said about three-quarters of voters felt angry or dissatisfied with the country's direction. About half of participants also said corruption and the cost of living were decisive factors in their vote for Congress. These indicators showed the elections took place amid domestic discontent, while the war with Iran was among the issues in the campaign debate. The intensifying contest for congressional seats puts these results in a broader context than the candidates' wins in the three states alone.
In energy markets, Brent crude closed at $103.60 per barrel on November 3, down 1.1% from Monday, after sharp moves during the session. The price rose above $107 per barrel overnight, then briefly fell below $101 in the morning, according to the Associated Press. The agency attributed oil's volatility to continued uncertainty over developments in the war with Iran, not the election results. EL7 data show that West Texas Intermediate closed at $96.76 per barrel on the same day. These levels reflect the November 3 session close and do not describe a stable price during the following day's publication.
U.S. stocks were mixed in the November 3 session: the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, despite declines in most of its stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 197 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, according to the Associated Press. The divergence among indexes came as oil-market concerns focused on the course of the war and the possibility of a broader confrontation. The United States had been at war with Iran for more than 8 months by November 3, while the agency said the conflict had shaken the global economy. Before the election, a Reuters/Ipsos poll in September put approval of President Donald Trump's performance at 32%.
On the political front, Trump told Axios in an interview on November 2 that he was "in no rush" to decide whether to resume fighting, and that negotiations would continue while military action remained an option if he concluded that no agreement could be reached. He added: "One way or another, we'll do something, but there's no need to rush." In a separate report, Reuters said Trump answered "No" when asked whether he was considering a strike on Iran after the midterm elections, despite his earlier hints that attacks could resume. The Associated Press, meanwhile, reported a limited U.S. strike on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the elections; an unnamed U.S. official said the targets were Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. forces in the strait. The strikes did not signal a resolution of the war, with the U.S. naval blockade around Iranian ports continuing and U.S. forces remaining in the region.
The statements coincided with diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. Axios said Qatari mediators had prepared a draft outlining a sequence of confidence-building steps over 3 days, aimed at resuming direct negotiations between the United States and Iran, and were awaiting both sides' responses. Reuters reported that Iranian negotiators were in Doha for a third consecutive day on November 2 for Qatari-mediated talks aimed at an agreement to end the war. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the prospects for a negotiated settlement looked positive to him and Trump. Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade of its ports, waiving sanctions on its oil sales and a ceasefire that included Lebanon. Meanwhile, another U.S. aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops were heading to the Middle East, according to the Associated Press.
On the data calendar, the Energy Information Administration's weekly oil report is due on November 12 at 12 p.m. and covers the week ended November 6, according to the agency's official schedule. The release follows the Veterans Day holiday. The Institute for Supply Management's services Purchasing Managers' Index was scheduled for November 4, according to the context of the coverage in the available information. No documented release date was available for the ADP employment report, so it is not included in today's agenda. The upcoming inventory data remain a later milestone for oil-market participants, while developments in the war and negotiations remain the factors the market report cited for crude's volatility.