Oil Falls to Lowest Close in Nearly 4 Weeks Despite 5.267 Million-Barrel Draw

Key Facts

Oil prices fell in Tuesday’s session, November 3, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude settling at their lowest levels in nearly 4 weeks, Reuters reported. The decline came despite a drop in U.S. crude inventories in data from the American Petroleum Institute, as investors continued to weigh signs of weak demand against supply concerns. The institute’s data showed inventories fell 5.267 million barrels in the week ended October 30. They were expected to rise 2.100 million barrels. That followed a previous decline of 2.031 million barrels in the release issued on October 27.

Global demand forecasts remain a headwind for the market after OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the organization had cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 to 400,000 barrels per day. The estimate at the start of the year was 1.4 million barrels per day, Reuters reported. The gap between the two estimates reflects a major revision to expectations for consumption growth during the year. Reuters reported the revision on October 12, so it was not a new announcement in Tuesday’s session. The weaker demand signal coincided with falling prices during the session, despite the large draw shown in U.S. inventory data.

International Energy Agency data point to a contraction in global supply in 2026, with the agency forecasting a decline of 5.8 million barrels per day to an average of 100.7 million barrels per day. In 2027, it expected the trend to reverse, with supply rising 7.7 million barrels per day. On inventories, the agency said observed global oil stocks fell 10 million barrels in September. At the end of the month, those stocks were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. These estimates set supply pressure and falling global inventories against the slower demand growth cited in OPEC’s forecast.

Energy Information Administration data show U.S. inventories declining in previous weeks, with the comparison varying by inventory category. Total U.S. crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 693.208 million barrels on October 23, compared with 710.950 million barrels on September 18. Commercial inventories, excluding lease stocks, were 410.625 million barrels on October 23, versus 426.398 million barrels on September 18. Department of Energy data showed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 282.2 million barrels on October 16. That included 96.6 million barrels of sweet crude and 185.6 million barrels of sour crude.

The U.S. Department of Energy said the latest contracts to deliver oil to the reserve, announced on October 29, cover more than 40 million barrels. The department added that the contracts fulfilled a commitment to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. On production, 7 major OPEC+ countries agreed in October to keep November output steady, with market conditions to be reviewed on November 1. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, covering the week ended November 6, is scheduled for release on November 12 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Publication was delayed because of the Veterans Day holiday, extending the wait for government inventory data.