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Macro EconomyMedium•4 November 2026•
3 min read

Brazil's Mid-October Inflation Slows to 0.32%, Below Reuters Poll Forecast

Key Facts

1The monthly IPCA-15 index rose 0.32% in mid-October, compared with 0.70% in the previous month.
2Annual inflation reached 4.62% through mid-October, compared with 4.47% in the previous period.
3Food and beverage prices rose 0.88%, personal expenses rose 0.55%, while housing costs fell 0.1%.
4The central bank targets inflation of 3%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points above or below that level.
5The central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time in October, to 13.75%.

Brazil's IPCA-15 consumer price index, which measures inflation through mid-month, rose 0.32% in October, slowing from 0.70% in the previous month and below the Reuters poll forecast of 0.43%, according to Reuters via Investing.com. The reading offers an indication of the price trajectory ahead of the Brazilian central bank's monetary policy committee meeting, scheduled for November 3 and 4. The full October inflation reading had not yet been released. It was scheduled for publication on November 12, according to the calendar of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE.

On an annual basis, prices rose 4.62% in the 12 months through mid-October, compared with an increase of 4.47% in the previous period, according to Reuters via Investing.com. The annual rate was below economists' forecast of 4.73% in a Reuters poll, despite rising from the previous month's reading. The index compares average price movements over a year, while the monthly IPCA-15 reading reflects changes during the month through mid-month. October's data therefore offered a mixed picture: monthly inflation slowed from September, while the annual rate rose from its previous level.

Food and beverages were the largest contributors to the monthly increase in the mid-October reading, with their prices rising 0.88%, according to Reuters via Investing.com. Personal expenses also rose 0.55% over the same period. By contrast, housing costs fell 0.1%. These moves show differing trends among the index's price categories, with food and beverages and personal expenses rising while housing declined. The figures were specific to the mid-October index and do not represent a breakdown of the full-month IPCA reading, which was scheduled for publication on November 12.

The Brazilian central bank targets inflation of 3%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points above or below that level, according to Reuters via Investing.com. The annual inflation reading of 4.62% is measured against that official target, while the mid-October monthly index reading comes as the bank monitors the price trajectory ahead of its meeting. Copom meets on November 3 and 4, and the decision data are published on the second day of the meeting, according to the central bank's official calendar. At the time the story was published, the decision was not due later that day; the second session was scheduled for November 4.

The central bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time in October, to 13.75%, according to Reuters via Investing.com. The cut came ahead of the November meeting, as the monthly IPCA-15 reading had slowed from the previous month while annual inflation rose to 4.62%. The 13.75% rate is the level after October's cut and does not represent the outcome of the November meeting. The bank is scheduled to announce its decision on November 4, while the full October IPCA reading remains scheduled for publication on November 12.