Report: SpaceX Targets About 13 Gigawatts of Computing Capacity in 2027

Key Facts

Research firm SemiAnalysis estimated that SpaceX is targeting about 13 gigawatts of computing capacity during 2027, in an expansion that would exceed what the company has achieved so far. In a report published on November 3, the firm said it had identified 3.6 gigawatts under construction at existing and new sites. That figure puts ongoing construction at the center of the plan, but does not mean the capacity is available to operate. SemiAnalysis also identified more than 9 gigawatts of potential capacity, compared with more than 8 gigawatts of electrical power that, according to its model, is under Elon Musk’s control. The firm said capacity that could enter service exceeds the available power it identified under this model. The 13-gigawatt target remains an estimate in the report, not a directly documented statement by Musk on an October earnings call.

The gap between capacity under construction and potential capacity reflects the scale of the sites SemiAnalysis is tracking, as well as their different stages of execution. The 3.6 gigawatts describes work under construction across multiple sites, while the figure of more than 9 gigawatts includes capacity the report identified as potential. The more than 8 gigawatts figure refers to power the firm’s model places under Musk’s control, not to data-center capacity itself. SemiAnalysis says this disparity makes securing electricity and bringing sites online a central part of the expansion. Bringing capacity into service also depends on completing and equipping the sites, according to the firm’s report. The figures therefore describe different stages of the computing plan, not a single measure of uniform operating capacity.

SemiAnalysis compared the scale of capacity SpaceX could build with the data-center capacity Google built over the period from 1999 to 2026. It said SpaceX could build a comparable amount in 1.5 years, a comparison that highlights the pace of execution assumed by the expansion plan. The report based its assessment of that pace on previous expansions at the company’s computing facilities. The first expansion at Colossus 1 took 122 days to add 150 megawatts, while Colossus 2 added 210 megawatts in 91 days. Those timelines provide previous examples of how quickly capacity has been added at existing facilities. But on their own, they do not prove that new sites will be completed at the same pace or that the targeted capacity will enter service on schedule.

The sites cited in the report include the Starbase facility in Texas, which SemiAnalysis said could accommodate more than 1 gigawatt of capacity. It added that the site will host two data centers, with its estimate of potential capacity tied to a timeframe extending to 2027. That would place Starbase among the sites that could contribute to reaching the targeted total computing capacity. At Colossus 2, SemiAnalysis said installation is already under way for batteries with a total storage capacity of 5.9 gigawatt-hours. Energy storage adds another element to the infrastructure accompanying the site’s computing expansion. This comes as the firm estimates that electrical power under Musk’s control exceeds 8 gigawatts, though that does not mean all of that power is allocated to data centers or available to them at the same time.

SemiAnalysis says the TeraFab project could include a data center, expressing medium-to-high confidence in that possibility. However, the report describes TeraFab primarily as a chip-factory project with a capacity of 10 gigawatts and an area of 100 million square feet; those figures apply to the project as described, not to the proposed data center. Use of the site for a data center remains a possibility in the firm’s estimate, while current work could be put to other uses if the project does not receive the necessary approvals. This distinction underscores the importance of separating capacity associated with the manufacturing project from computing capacity a data center could add. The report did not give a confirmed figure for the proposed TeraFab data center’s capacity. The 10-gigawatt figure therefore is not included in the data-center estimate as confirmed operating capacity.

One near-term indicator of the pace of execution is the SPAM project, whose construction began on October 5, 2026, according to SemiAnalysis, with the first batches targeted to begin operating in December. The firm said that timeline could be shorter than the 91-day record set by the Colossus 2 expansion. The December target provides an early test of how quickly construction sites can be turned into operating capacity. The timing of the first batches also helps assess progress toward the capacity the firm expects in 2027. The report did not provide a specific figure for SPAM’s capacity at the start of operations in the available facts. This target is among the first milestones to watch following publication of the 13-gigawatt estimate.